Recent polling shows Republican candidates receiving roughly 8-19% support among Black voters ahead of the 2026 midterms, with figures such as Pew Research placing GOP preference at 8% versus 68% Democratic and Rasmussen at 16%. Trader consensus clusters around 10-11% because 2024 gains appear to be eroding amid low presidential approval in the mid-teens, economic pressures including tariffs and unemployment, and backlash to administration actions on DEI programs and voting-related policies. Variation across surveys, high undecided shares, and midterm turnout patterns among this demographic sustain the tight distribution across nearby bins, with separation likely hinging on final generic ballot trends and state-level results in coming weeks.