Incumbent Republican Carlos Giménez holds a commanding position in Florida’s 28th congressional district, which encompasses southwest Miami-Dade County and the Florida Keys, due to the area’s strong Republican lean and his established record. The district delivered substantial margins for Republican presidential candidates in recent cycles, and independent race ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Giménez benefits from incumbency advantages, including higher fundraising and cash reserves compared with challenger Phil Ehr, a retired Navy commander who has drawn endorsements from national security figures and labor groups. Primaries for both parties were uncontested in August 2026, clearing the path for the November 3 general election. While Ehr’s campaign emphasizes border security and healthcare, structural factors and limited recent polling showing double-digit Republican leads have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward the incumbent. An upset would likely require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or significant national political shift.