Trader consensus prices the UEFA Path A playoff winner—now Italy or Bosnia following Italy's 2-0 semifinal victory over Northern Ireland and Bosnia's penalty shootout triumph against Wales on March 27—at a slim 41.5% implied probability to top Group B, neck-and-neck with Switzerland's 41.0%. Switzerland's unbeaten qualifying run (4 wins, 2 draws, +12 goal difference) underpins their edge in consistency and defensive solidity, but Italy's four-time champion pedigree and attacking depth, boosted by recent playoff momentum, fuel the deadlock. Bosnia's upset path, led by veteran Edin Džeko's late equalizer, adds intrigue to their March 31 final clash. Co-host Canada (14.5%) gains from home fixtures like June 12 in Toronto but trails due to modest qualifiers, while Qatar (3.5%) faces steep barriers post-2022 group exit.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourBIH/ITA/IRN/PdG 42%
Suisse 41%
Canada 15%
Qatar 3.6%
$24,945 Vol.
$24,945 Vol.
BIH/ITA/IRN/PdG
42%
Suisse
41%
Canada
15%
Qatar
4%
BIH/ITA/IRN/PdG 42%
Suisse 41%
Canada 15%
Qatar 3.6%
$24,945 Vol.
$24,945 Vol.
BIH/ITA/IRN/PdG
42%
Suisse
41%
Canada
15%
Qatar
4%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 5, 2025, 6:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices the UEFA Path A playoff winner—now Italy or Bosnia following Italy's 2-0 semifinal victory over Northern Ireland and Bosnia's penalty shootout triumph against Wales on March 27—at a slim 41.5% implied probability to top Group B, neck-and-neck with Switzerland's 41.0%. Switzerland's unbeaten qualifying run (4 wins, 2 draws, +12 goal difference) underpins their edge in consistency and defensive solidity, but Italy's four-time champion pedigree and attacking depth, boosted by recent playoff momentum, fuel the deadlock. Bosnia's upset path, led by veteran Edin Džeko's late equalizer, adds intrigue to their March 31 final clash. Co-host Canada (14.5%) gains from home fixtures like June 12 in Toronto but trails due to modest qualifiers, while Qatar (3.5%) faces steep barriers post-2022 group exit.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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