Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 73% implied probability to a Hike–Pause–Hike sequence for Federal Reserve decisions through December, reflecting sustained inflation above the 2% target and resilient labor market conditions that support further monetary policy tightening. The alternative Hike–Pause–Pause path holds 26.5% odds, capturing scenarios of earlier moderation in growth or price pressures that could lead the FOMC to hold rates steady later in the cycle. Market-implied odds price in a cautious rate path versus official guidance, with November employment and CPI releases plus the December FOMC meeting serving as primary catalysts that could shift probabilities based on incoming data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourView resolved

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