Trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate paths through December reflects closely contested economic signals, with the four leading sequences clustered between 18% and 23% implied probability. Markets price in divergent combinations of hikes and pauses as participants weigh the latest inflation trajectory against labor-market softening. Recent CPI and employment releases have kept expectations fluid, while Treasury yields and the Fed funds futures curve embed a cautious baseline that could shift with incoming data. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent communications stand as immediate catalysts, with further clarity likely emerging from October employment figures and the November policy statement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHausse–Pause–Hausse 23%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause 20%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause 19%
Relèvement–Relèvement–Relèvement 18%
$26,230 Vol.
$26,230 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Hausse–Pause–Hausse
23%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause
19%
Relèvement–Relèvement–Relèvement
18%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause
20%
Pause–Pause–Hausse
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
13%
Pause–Hausse–Hausse
3%
Pause–Hausse–Pause
1%
Autre
7%
Hausse–Pause–Hausse 23%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause 20%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause 19%
Relèvement–Relèvement–Relèvement 18%
$26,230 Vol.
$26,230 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Hausse–Pause–Hausse
$1,796 Vol.
23%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause
$1,632 Vol.
19%
Relèvement–Relèvement–Relèvement
$1,611 Vol.
18%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause
$1,762 Vol.
20%
Pause–Pause–Hausse
$1,584 Vol.
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$14,704 Vol.
13%
Pause–Hausse–Hausse
$1,300 Vol.
3%
Pause–Hausse–Pause
$1,453 Vol.
1%
Autre
$388 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate paths through December reflects closely contested economic signals, with the four leading sequences clustered between 18% and 23% implied probability. Markets price in divergent combinations of hikes and pauses as participants weigh the latest inflation trajectory against labor-market softening. Recent CPI and employment releases have kept expectations fluid, while Treasury yields and the Fed funds futures curve embed a cautious baseline that could shift with incoming data. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent communications stand as immediate catalysts, with further clarity likely emerging from October employment figures and the November policy statement.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$26,230Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate paths through December reflects closely contested economic signals, with the four leading sequences clustered between 18% and 23% implied probability. Markets price in divergent combinations of hikes and pauses as participants weigh the latest inflation trajectory against labor-market softening. Recent CPI and employment releases have kept expectations fluid, while Treasury yields and the Fed funds futures curve embed a cautious baseline that could shift with incoming data. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent communications stand as immediate catalysts, with further clarity likely emerging from October employment figures and the November policy statement.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$26,230Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate paths through December reflects closely contested economic signals, with the four leading sequences clustered between 18% and 23% implied probability. Markets price in divergent combinations of hikes and pauses as participants weigh the latest inflation trajectory against labor-market softening. Recent CPI and employment releases have kept expectations fluid, while Treasury yields and the Fed funds futures curve embed a cautious baseline that could shift with incoming data. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent communications stand as immediate catalysts, with further clarity likely emerging from October employment figures and the November policy statement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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