Market-implied odds assign a dominant 78.5% probability to a hike-pause-hike sequence across the Federal Reserve’s September-to-December policy meetings, reflecting trader consensus shaped by elevated inflation readings and steady labor-market resilience. Recent CPI data through September showed core prices remaining above the 2% target, supporting expectations for a 25 basis-point increase at the first meeting in the period, while mixed nonfarm payrolls and jobless claims have tempered the case for consecutive moves. Forward guidance from the September FOMC statement reinforced a data-dependent path, with Treasury yields and the fed funds futures curve embedding similar rate expectations. The November employment report and December CPI release stand as the next major catalysts that could shift these probabilities if incoming figures deviate from consensus.