Trader consensus leans heavily against FDA approval of Retatrutide in 2024, with "No" at 77.5% implied probability, primarily due to the investigational triple-agonist's ongoing Phase 3 TRIUMPH trials, where topline data isn't expected until mid-2025. This GLP-1/GIP/glucagon receptor drug from Eli Lilly demonstrated up to 24% weight loss in Phase 2 obesity studies, but full Phase 3 validation is required before any New Drug Application submission, followed by the standard 10-12 month review. No filing has been announced, mirroring timelines for peers like tirzepatide, approved over a year post-Phase 3. Recent enrollment completions in trials provide no hints of acceleration, reinforcing trader caution amid regulatory precedents.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$543,270 Vol.
$543,270 Vol.
Oui
$543,270 Vol.
$543,270 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 12, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans heavily against FDA approval of Retatrutide in 2024, with "No" at 77.5% implied probability, primarily due to the investigational triple-agonist's ongoing Phase 3 TRIUMPH trials, where topline data isn't expected until mid-2025. This GLP-1/GIP/glucagon receptor drug from Eli Lilly demonstrated up to 24% weight loss in Phase 2 obesity studies, but full Phase 3 validation is required before any New Drug Application submission, followed by the standard 10-12 month review. No filing has been announced, mirroring timelines for peers like tirzepatide, approved over a year post-Phase 3. Recent enrollment completions in trials provide no hints of acceleration, reinforcing trader caution amid regulatory precedents.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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