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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Farrer

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Farrer
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Farrer

David Farley 100.0%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Raissa Butkowski <1%

Michelle Milthorpe <1%

Polymarket

$499,060 Vol.

David Farley 100.0%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Raissa Butkowski <1%

Michelle Milthorpe <1%

Polymarket

$499,060 Vol.

icon for Rebecca Scriven

Rebecca Scriven

$265,702 Vol.

Non

icon for Raissa Butkowski

Raissa Butkowski

$17,778 Vol.

Non

icon for Michelle Milthorpe

Michelle Milthorpe

$84,703 Vol.

Non

icon for Helen Dalton

Helen Dalton

$56,332 Vol.

Non

icon for David Farley

David Farley

$74,546 Vol.

Oui

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).One Nation candidate David Farley has secured a commanding victory in the federal Farrer by-election held on May 9, 2026, marking the party's historic first win in a House of Representatives seat after former Liberal MP Sussan Ley's resignation following her leadership loss. Early counts show Farley's primary vote surging to around 40% with a two-candidate preferred margin of approximately 57% over independent Michelle Milthorpe, amid a 31-point crash in the Liberal primary for Raissa Butkowski to 12% and negligible support for Family First's Rebecca Scriven. Trader consensus at 100% for Farley reflects official projections and declarations from the Australian Electoral Commission, with Family First's Scriven, Liberal's Butkowski, and non-candidate Helen Dalton trailing at 0.1%. Scenarios challenging this include rare recount demands or postal vote shifts, though the wide margin makes resolution certain absent extraordinary procedural disputes.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$499,060
Date de fin
9 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).One Nation candidate David Farley has secured a commanding victory in the federal Farrer by-election held on May 9, 2026, marking the party's historic first win in a House of Representatives seat after former Liberal MP Sussan Ley's resignation following her leadership loss. Early counts show Farley's primary vote surging to around 40% with a two-candidate preferred margin of approximately 57% over independent Michelle Milthorpe, amid a 31-point crash in the Liberal primary for Raissa Butkowski to 12% and negligible support for Family First's Rebecca Scriven. Trader consensus at 100% for Farley reflects official projections and declarations from the Australian Electoral Commission, with Family First's Scriven, Liberal's Butkowski, and non-candidate Helen Dalton trailing at 0.1%. Scenarios challenging this include rare recount demands or postal vote shifts, though the wide margin makes resolution certain absent extraordinary procedural disputes.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$499,060
Date de fin
9 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Farrer » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « David Farley » à 100%, suivi de « Rebecca Scriven » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Farrer » a généré $499.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 17, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Farrer », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Farrer » est « David Farley » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Rebecca Scriven » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Farrer » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.