Finland's "Liekinheitin" by violinist Linda Lampenius and pop star Pete Parkkonen commands a 35% implied probability as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus, propelled by its dominant UMK national final win last month, blending classical flair with pop hooks to appeal across juries and televoters—a rare feat echoing Nordic strengths like Sweden's past victories. France's Monroe ("Regarde!") at 12.6% and Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund hold strong second and third spots after compelling music video drops in early March, fueling fan polls and predictive models like The Model. Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse") leverages celebrity draw at 7.8%, while Greece's Akylas ("Ferto") climbs post-national final buzz. With all 35 entries released for Vienna's May showdown, recent odds surges reflect streaming traction and rehearsal previews, but jury-televote divergences and geopolitical televote swings could upend the pack.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLauréat de l'Eurovision 2026
Lauréat de l'Eurovision 2026
Finlande 35.1%
France 12.7%
Danemark 11.5%
Australie 7.8%
$49,104,793 Vol.
$49,104,793 Vol.

Finlande
35%

France
13%

Danemark
11%

Australie
8%

Grèce
7%

Israël
4%

Suède
4%

Ukraine
3%

Italie
2%

Roumanie
2%

Chypre
1%

Malte
1%

Tchéquie
1%

Bulgarie
1%

Moldavie
1%

Allemagne
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Suisse
1%

Royaume-Uni
1%

Belgique
1%

Croatie
1%

Norvège
1%

Albanie
<1%

Lettonie
<1%

Arménie
<1%

Azerbaïdjan
<1%

Géorgie
<1%

Lituanie
<1%

Serbie
<1%

Pologne
<1%

Autriche
<1%

Estonie
<1%

Portugal
<1%

Saint-Marin
<1%

Monténégro
<1%
Finlande 35.1%
France 12.7%
Danemark 11.5%
Australie 7.8%
$49,104,793 Vol.
$49,104,793 Vol.

Finlande
35%

France
13%

Danemark
11%

Australie
8%

Grèce
7%

Israël
4%

Suède
4%

Ukraine
3%

Italie
2%

Roumanie
2%

Chypre
1%

Malte
1%

Tchéquie
1%

Bulgarie
1%

Moldavie
1%

Allemagne
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Suisse
1%

Royaume-Uni
1%

Belgique
1%

Croatie
1%

Norvège
1%

Albanie
<1%

Lettonie
<1%

Arménie
<1%

Azerbaïdjan
<1%

Géorgie
<1%

Lituanie
<1%

Serbie
<1%

Pologne
<1%

Autriche
<1%

Estonie
<1%

Portugal
<1%

Saint-Marin
<1%

Monténégro
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's "Liekinheitin" by violinist Linda Lampenius and pop star Pete Parkkonen commands a 35% implied probability as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus, propelled by its dominant UMK national final win last month, blending classical flair with pop hooks to appeal across juries and televoters—a rare feat echoing Nordic strengths like Sweden's past victories. France's Monroe ("Regarde!") at 12.6% and Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund hold strong second and third spots after compelling music video drops in early March, fueling fan polls and predictive models like The Model. Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse") leverages celebrity draw at 7.8%, while Greece's Akylas ("Ferto") climbs post-national final buzz. With all 35 entries released for Vienna's May showdown, recent odds surges reflect streaming traction and rehearsal previews, but jury-televote divergences and geopolitical televote swings could upend the pack.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes