Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, pushing euro-area inflation risks higher and prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent tightening. Staff projections now forecast 2026 HICP inflation at 2.6%, up sharply from prior estimates, with resilient labor markets amplifying second-round concerns. These factors have anchored trader consensus on a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 meeting, reflected in the 87% market-implied odds, as incoming commodity and inflation readings remain the key swing variables ahead of the decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Hausse de 25 points de base 87%
No change 12.3%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,211 Vol.
$349,211 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
Hausse de 25 points de base
87%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Hausse de 25 points de base 87%
No change 12.3%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,211 Vol.
$349,211 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
Hausse de 25 points de base
87%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, pushing euro-area inflation risks higher and prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting while signaling data-dependent tightening. Staff projections now forecast 2026 HICP inflation at 2.6%, up sharply from prior estimates, with resilient labor markets amplifying second-round concerns. These factors have anchored trader consensus on a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 meeting, reflected in the 87% market-implied odds, as incoming commodity and inflation readings remain the key swing variables ahead of the decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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