Market icon

Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday?

Market icon

Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$10,818 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$10,818 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 56% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on October 25, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 25 as soon as the next datapoint become available. This market may not resolve until the next datapoint is available. If no datapoint for October 25 is available by October 29, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous datapoint to October 25.

Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Donald Trump winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.
Volume
$10,818
Date de fin
Oct 25, 2024
Marché ouvert
Oct 21, 2024, 4:59 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 56% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on October 25, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 25 as soon as the next datapoint become available. This market may not resolve until the next datapoint is available. If no datapoint for October 25 is available by October 29, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous datapoint to October 25. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Donald Trump winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 56% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on October 25, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 25 as soon as the next datapoint become available. This market may not resolve until the next datapoint is available. If no datapoint for October 25 is available by October 29, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous datapoint to October 25.

Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Donald Trump winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.
Volume
$10,818
Date de fin
Oct 25, 2024
Marché ouvert
Oct 21, 2024, 4:59 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 56% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on October 25, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 25 as soon as the next datapoint become available. This market may not resolve until the next datapoint is available. If no datapoint for October 25 is available by October 29, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous datapoint to October 25. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Donald Trump winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 0% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 0¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 0% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday? » a généré $10.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Oct 21, 2024. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday? » est de 0% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 0% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.