Recent August core PCE data came in softer than expected at 0.2% month-over-month, aided by downward revisions from methodology changes, setting a dovish tone for the September reading amid moderating core services and supercore pressures. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this momentum, with 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes closely matched at 35.5% and 29.0% implied probability as markets weigh resilient spending and transportation costs against cooling goods and shelter trends. Analysts project a September core PCE near 0.23%, while the October 29 release will inform the FOMC’s assessment of inflation persistence ahead of year-end policy decisions. Elevated core services remain a key swing factor that could support a 0.3% or higher print if discretionary spending holds firm.