Trader consensus implies an 81% probability that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, reflecting the bill's lack of progress amid a crowded legislative calendar and partisan procedural hurdles. Bipartisan legislation introduced in March by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY), along with Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), seeks to prohibit unauthorized U.S. military action against Iran but has seen no committee hearings or floor votes. A parallel Yemen war powers resolution passed the Senate 79-18 in February yet remains stalled in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson prioritizes Israel aid packages and budget negotiations over restricting executive authority. Recent Iran-Israel escalations, including Tehran's April 13 missile barrage, have not prompted accelerated action, underscoring congressional reluctance despite diplomatic tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies an 81% probability that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, reflecting the bill's lack of progress amid a crowded legislative calendar and partisan procedural hurdles. Bipartisan legislation introduced in March by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY), along with Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), seeks to prohibit unauthorized U.S. military action against Iran but has seen no committee hearings or floor votes. A parallel Yemen war powers resolution passed the Senate 79-18 in February yet remains stalled in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson prioritizes Israel aid packages and budget negotiations over restricting executive authority. Recent Iran-Israel escalations, including Tehran's April 13 missile barrage, have not prompted accelerated action, underscoring congressional reluctance despite diplomatic tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$4,063Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies an 81% probability that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, reflecting the bill's lack of progress amid a crowded legislative calendar and partisan procedural hurdles. Bipartisan legislation introduced in March by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY), along with Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), seeks to prohibit unauthorized U.S. military action against Iran but has seen no committee hearings or floor votes. A parallel Yemen war powers resolution passed the Senate 79-18 in February yet remains stalled in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson prioritizes Israel aid packages and budget negotiations over restricting executive authority. Recent Iran-Israel escalations, including Tehran's April 13 missile barrage, have not prompted accelerated action, underscoring congressional reluctance despite diplomatic tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,063Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 81% probability that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, reflecting the bill's lack of progress amid a crowded legislative calendar and partisan procedural hurdles. Bipartisan legislation introduced in March by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY), along with Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), seeks to prohibit unauthorized U.S. military action against Iran but has seen no committee hearings or floor votes. A parallel Yemen war powers resolution passed the Senate 79-18 in February yet remains stalled in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson prioritizes Israel aid packages and budget negotiations over restricting executive authority. Recent Iran-Israel escalations, including Tehran's April 13 missile barrage, have not prompted accelerated action, underscoring congressional reluctance despite diplomatic tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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