Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability for "No" on Congress passing an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, driven by legislative stagnation despite bipartisan House introduction (H.J.Res. 124 by Reps. Massie and Khanna) shortly after Iran's April 13 missile barrage on Israel. The measure, requiring congressional approval for U.S. forces against Iran, has languished in Foreign Affairs and Rules committees without hearings, floor votes, or leadership support from Speaker Johnson, who prioritizes Israel aid. Senate companion by Sen. Kaine shows no advancement amid partisan divides on executive war powers, with the April 30 deadline approaching and no scheduled actions to shift momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$3,938Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,938Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability for "No" on Congress passing an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, driven by legislative stagnation despite bipartisan House introduction (H.J.Res. 124 by Reps. Massie and Khanna) shortly after Iran's April 13 missile barrage on Israel. The measure, requiring congressional approval for U.S. forces against Iran, has languished in Foreign Affairs and Rules committees without hearings, floor votes, or leadership support from Speaker Johnson, who prioritizes Israel aid. Senate companion by Sen. Kaine shows no advancement amid partisan divides on executive war powers, with the April 30 deadline approaching and no scheduled actions to shift momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes