Recent Middle East supply disruptions, centered on Iran-related tensions and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have driven sharp inventory draws and elevated WTI crude futures, supporting the market-implied 63.5% probability for a June settlement above $84. The Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent prices near $106 per barrel in May and June amid 8.5 million barrels per day of global inventory declines in the second quarter, before anticipated gradual resumption of flows later in the year. These dynamics outweigh longer-term forecasts of lower averages, as traders price in near-term tightness from production shut-ins totaling over 10 million barrels per day in April. Any diplomatic progress easing Hormuz restrictions represents the key swing factor that could compress odds for the upper range ahead of June contract expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÀ quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
>84 $ 64%
77 $–84 $ 21%
70 $ - 77 $ 7.9%
63 $-70 $ 3.4%
$198,250 Vol.
$198,250 Vol.
<42 $
<1%
42 $-49 $
<1%
49 $–56 $
1%
56 $-63 $
1%
63 $-70 $
3%
70 $ - 77 $
8%
77 $–84 $
21%
>84 $
64%
>84 $ 64%
77 $–84 $ 21%
70 $ - 77 $ 7.9%
63 $-70 $ 3.4%
$198,250 Vol.
$198,250 Vol.
<42 $
<1%
42 $-49 $
<1%
49 $–56 $
1%
56 $-63 $
1%
63 $-70 $
3%
70 $ - 77 $
8%
77 $–84 $
21%
>84 $
64%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East supply disruptions, centered on Iran-related tensions and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have driven sharp inventory draws and elevated WTI crude futures, supporting the market-implied 63.5% probability for a June settlement above $84. The Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent prices near $106 per barrel in May and June amid 8.5 million barrels per day of global inventory declines in the second quarter, before anticipated gradual resumption of flows later in the year. These dynamics outweigh longer-term forecasts of lower averages, as traders price in near-term tightness from production shut-ins totaling over 10 million barrels per day in April. Any diplomatic progress easing Hormuz restrictions represents the key swing factor that could compress odds for the upper range ahead of June contract expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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