Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability that BlackRock (BLK) will report non-GAAP EPS exceeding $12.26 in its Q1 2026 earnings, due April 14, driven by record $14 trillion year-end 2025 assets under management (AUM) and sustained ETF inflows into Q1 2026. Q4 2025 delivered $342 billion net inflows—including $268 billion long-term—boosting fee revenue amid equity market gains and iShares ETF dominance, with global ETPs seeing $251 billion inflows in February alone. Bitcoin ETF streaks led by BlackRock's IBIT further accelerated momentum. Analysts maintain bullish outlooks, with 90% recommending buy and consensus price targets near $1,300, though Morgan Stanley recently trimmed its target to $1,368 while staying overweight. Resolution hinges on final AUM updates and fee dynamics ahead of the release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
Oui
If BlackRock releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...If BlackRock releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Source de résolution
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability that BlackRock (BLK) will report non-GAAP EPS exceeding $12.26 in its Q1 2026 earnings, due April 14, driven by record $14 trillion year-end 2025 assets under management (AUM) and sustained ETF inflows into Q1 2026. Q4 2025 delivered $342 billion net inflows—including $268 billion long-term—boosting fee revenue amid equity market gains and iShares ETF dominance, with global ETPs seeing $251 billion inflows in February alone. Bitcoin ETF streaks led by BlackRock's IBIT further accelerated momentum. Analysts maintain bullish outlooks, with 90% recommending buy and consensus price targets near $1,300, though Morgan Stanley recently trimmed its target to $1,368 while staying overweight. Resolution hinges on final AUM updates and fee dynamics ahead of the release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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