Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target rate at its May 7 meeting, reflecting caution after the central bank's surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% on March 26 in a divided 3-2 vote. Despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.6% year-over-year in mid-March—prompting upward revisions to 2026 forecasts—Banxico prioritized softening economic activity and Middle East geopolitical risks, though Governor Victoria Rodriguez signaled the easing cycle is nearing an end just days ago. A 14.5% chance of decrease stems from persistent growth worries, while hikes at 2.6% remain unlikely amid the dovish bias; April CPI data will be pivotal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque du Mexique en mai
Décision de la Banque du Mexique en mai
Aucun changement 84%
Baisse 15%
Augmentation 2.1%
$10,026 Vol.
$10,026 Vol.
Baisse
15%
Aucun changement
84%
Augmentation
2%
Aucun changement 84%
Baisse 15%
Augmentation 2.1%
$10,026 Vol.
$10,026 Vol.
Baisse
15%
Aucun changement
84%
Augmentation
2%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target rate at its May 7 meeting, reflecting caution after the central bank's surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% on March 26 in a divided 3-2 vote. Despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.6% year-over-year in mid-March—prompting upward revisions to 2026 forecasts—Banxico prioritized softening economic activity and Middle East geopolitical risks, though Governor Victoria Rodriguez signaled the easing cycle is nearing an end just days ago. A 14.5% chance of decrease stems from persistent growth worries, while hikes at 2.6% remain unlikely amid the dovish bias; April CPI data will be pivotal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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