Sticky UK CPI inflation holding at 3.0% through February 2026, coupled with Middle East conflict—including the Iran war—driving up energy prices, has propelled Polymarket's trader consensus to price a 64% implied probability of a Bank of England rate hike sometime in 2026. The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, citing balanced risks but upward revisions to medium-term inflation forecasts amid persistent price pressures. Wage growth eased to 3.8% regular pay in the three months to January, offering modest relief, yet money markets now imply up to two 25-basis-point increases by year-end. The April 30 MPC decision and impending CPI releases remain key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$14,499 Vol.
$14,499 Vol.
Oui
$14,499 Vol.
$14,499 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Sticky UK CPI inflation holding at 3.0% through February 2026, coupled with Middle East conflict—including the Iran war—driving up energy prices, has propelled Polymarket's trader consensus to price a 64% implied probability of a Bank of England rate hike sometime in 2026. The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, citing balanced risks but upward revisions to medium-term inflation forecasts amid persistent price pressures. Wage growth eased to 3.8% regular pay in the three months to January, offering modest relief, yet money markets now imply up to two 25-basis-point increases by year-end. The April 30 MPC decision and impending CPI releases remain key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes