Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to a Bank of England rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict's energy price surge, which held UK CPI at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—prompting the MPC's unanimous March decision to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. BoE forecasts show CPI peaking at 3.5% in Q3 2026 amid sticky services inflation and moderating but elevated wage growth, with Governor Bailey yesterday cautioning markets against pricing in cuts too aggressively. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI data on April 22 and the April 30 MPC meeting, where energy shocks could solidify hawkish positioning against historical base rates around 2-3%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$15,027 Vol.
$15,027 Vol.
Oui
$15,027 Vol.
$15,027 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to a Bank of England rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict's energy price surge, which held UK CPI at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—prompting the MPC's unanimous March decision to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. BoE forecasts show CPI peaking at 3.5% in Q3 2026 amid sticky services inflation and moderating but elevated wage growth, with Governor Bailey yesterday cautioning markets against pricing in cuts too aggressively. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI data on April 22 and the April 30 MPC meeting, where energy shocks could solidify hawkish positioning against historical base rates around 2-3%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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