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Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

AZ-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

Market icon
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

AZ-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

NOUVEAU
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Parti démocrate

$38 Vol.

75%

Parti républicain

$0 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race strongly favors Democrats at 75.5% implied probability, driven by frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza's competitive fundraising—$2.9 million raised through late 2025, nearly matching incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani's totals—and key endorsements from EMILY's List and the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February 2026. This Toss-up district (Cook PVI even) has seen narrow GOP wins in recent cycles amid close presidential margins, but midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency historically disadvantage incumbents like Ciscomani. An October 2025 poll showed Mendoza edging Ciscomani 42%-41%; the March 23 filing deadline solidified a crowded Democratic primary ahead of the July 21 vote, amplifying optimism for a pickup in this battleground.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race strongly favors Democrats at 75.5% implied probability, driven by frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza's competitive fundraising—$2.9 million raised through late 2025, nearly matching incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani's totals—and key endorsements from EMILY's List and the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February 2026. This Toss-up district (Cook PVI even) has seen narrow GOP wins in recent cycles amid close presidential margins, but midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency historically disadvantage incumbents like Ciscomani. An October 2025 poll showed Mendoza edging Ciscomani 42%-41%; the March 23 filing deadline solidified a crowded Democratic primary ahead of the July 21 vote, amplifying optimism for a pickup in this battleground.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Questions fréquentes

« AZ-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Parti démocrate » à 75%, suivi de « Parti républicain » à 26%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 75¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 75% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« AZ-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Dec 16, 2025. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « AZ-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « AZ-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est « Parti démocrate » à 75%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 75% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti républicain » à 26%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « AZ-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.