Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% "No" for Avatar 4 receiving an official greenlight by the March 31, 2026, deadline, as no explicit production approval emerged from Disney, 20th Century Studios, or James Cameron. Avatar: Fire and Ash's global box office, landing just shy of $1.5 billion, trailed The Way of Water's $2.3 billion benchmark, fueling studio caution amid rising costs. Cameron's March 9 Saturn Awards comments deemed the sequel "very likely" but contingent on cost efficiencies and full audience data review, underscoring unresolved financial hurdles. With the date passed, upset scenarios are negligible barring an overlooked credible announcement, though historical slate dates like December 2029 do not equate to fresh greenlight confirmation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAvatar 4 greenlit d'ici le 31 mars ?
Avatar 4 greenlit d'ici le 31 mars ?
Oui
$22,485 Vol.
$22,485 Vol.
Oui
$22,485 Vol.
$22,485 Vol.
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 3:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% "No" for Avatar 4 receiving an official greenlight by the March 31, 2026, deadline, as no explicit production approval emerged from Disney, 20th Century Studios, or James Cameron. Avatar: Fire and Ash's global box office, landing just shy of $1.5 billion, trailed The Way of Water's $2.3 billion benchmark, fueling studio caution amid rising costs. Cameron's March 9 Saturn Awards comments deemed the sequel "very likely" but contingent on cost efficiencies and full audience data review, underscoring unresolved financial hurdles. With the date passed, upset scenarios are negligible barring an overlooked credible announcement, though historical slate dates like December 2029 do not equate to fresh greenlight confirmation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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