Mary Peltola holds a clear lead in trader consensus for the 2026 Alaska Senate race due to consistent polling showing her competitive or ahead in ranked-choice voting simulations against incumbent Dan Sullivan. Recent surveys from late September and early October, including those from the New York Times/Siena and Alaska Survey Research, indicate Peltola ahead or within a few points in final RCV rounds, supported by strength among independents and younger voters. The top-four primary results, where Peltola captured nearly half the vote, and the state's use of ranked-choice voting have shaped expectations, with forecasters rating the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic. Sullivan's position reflects Alaska's Republican lean but faces headwinds from these trends ahead of the November 3 general election.