Mary Peltola holds a strong lead in trader pricing for Alaska’s November 3 Senate contest under ranked-choice voting, reflecting her consistent polling edge in recent surveys, including a New York Times/Siena result showing her ahead by seven points. The Democratic former congresswoman advanced from the August primary with nearly 50 percent support, outperforming incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and benefiting from a national environment that has shifted several red-state races toward Democrats. Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently moved the contest to Lean Democratic, citing Peltola’s strength among independents and younger voters. Sullivan has drawn support from Vice President Vance and party committees, yet other Republican candidates on the ballot and mixed head-to-head polling have kept the race competitive while reinforcing the market’s view of Peltola as the front-runner.