Musk’s elevated posting pace on X has positioned the 260-279 tweet range as the clear market leader at 37.4% implied probability, with 240-259 close behind at 24.5%. Traders are tracking his recent daily output of 12–22 posts, which has held steady amid ongoing commentary on Tesla autonomy, SpaceX Starship tests, Grok features, and political topics. With the Aug 14–21 window nearly complete, the consensus reflects observed volume plus expected activity on the final day rather than any single catalyst. Historical patterns of 20–40+ daily tweets during active periods reinforce this pricing, though last-minute shifts in engagement could still nudge the total.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour260-279 37.5%
240-259 26.2%
280-299 20.8%
300-319 10.8%
$4,445,249 Vol.
$4,445,249 Vol.
200-219
<1%
220-239
3%
240-259
26%
260-279
38%
280-299
21%
300-319
11%
320-339
4%
340-359
2%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
260-279 37.5%
240-259 26.2%
280-299 20.8%
300-319 10.8%
$4,445,249 Vol.
$4,445,249 Vol.
200-219
<1%
220-239
3%
240-259
26%
260-279
38%
280-299
21%
300-319
11%
320-339
4%
340-359
2%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Musk’s elevated posting pace on X has positioned the 260-279 tweet range as the clear market leader at 37.4% implied probability, with 240-259 close behind at 24.5%. Traders are tracking his recent daily output of 12–22 posts, which has held steady amid ongoing commentary on Tesla autonomy, SpaceX Starship tests, Grok features, and political topics. With the Aug 14–21 window nearly complete, the consensus reflects observed volume plus expected activity on the final day rather than any single catalyst. Historical patterns of 20–40+ daily tweets during active periods reinforce this pricing, though last-minute shifts in engagement could still nudge the total.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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