**Jack Lowden leads trader consensus at 36.8% implied probability** due to his established spy-thriller credentials in *Slow Horses*, Scottish heritage echoing Sean Connery, and recent industry chatter including Gary Oldman’s September comments suggesting a choice has been made but not announced. Callum Turner follows at 18.3% amid consistent shortlist mentions and his rising profile, while “No Bond chosen” at 19.1% captures uncertainty over an imminent reveal. Reports of a narrowed shortlist featuring Lowden, Turner, Jacob Elordi, Paul Mescal, Harris Dickinson, and Jack Barton, plus ongoing auditions under Amazon MGM and director Denis Villeneuve, have shaped positioning. An expected announcement by year-end remains the key upcoming catalyst, though official confirmation is still absent and casting outcomes can shift rapidly.