Michigan leads trader consensus at 20.5% implied probability for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title, fueled by its No. 1-ranked 2025 recruiting class under Dusty May, including five-star talents like Trey McNutt and Durral Brooks alongside key returners. Arizona (19.8%) and Duke (16.5%) trail closely, bolstered by their own top-five hauls—Koa Peat and Jalil Bethea, respectively—plus aggressive transfer portal moves retaining elite production. Florida's surge to 9.2% reflects Todd Golden's portal dominance and four-star signees, while Houston's defensive pedigree endures despite graduations. This parity stems from widespread recruiting parity, unresolved transfer impacts, and early-season variables like non-conference schedules, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing high-variance futures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMichigan 21%
Arizona 19.7%
Duke 18%
Floride 9.0%
$21,272,391 Vol.
$21,272,391 Vol.
Michigan
21%
Arizona
20%
Duke
18%
Floride
9%
Houston
7%
Illinois
4%
Iowa State
4%
Purdue
4%
Connecticut
3%
Michigan State
3%
Arkansas
2%
Saint John's
2%
Gonzaga
2%
UCLA
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Kansas
1%
Tennessee
1%
Virginie
1%
Texas
1%
Nebraska
1%
Alabama
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
VCU
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
Louisville
<1%
Utah State
<1%
Michigan 21%
Arizona 19.7%
Duke 18%
Floride 9.0%
$21,272,391 Vol.
$21,272,391 Vol.
Michigan
21%
Arizona
20%
Duke
18%
Floride
9%
Houston
7%
Illinois
4%
Iowa State
4%
Purdue
4%
Connecticut
3%
Michigan State
3%
Arkansas
2%
Saint John's
2%
Gonzaga
2%
UCLA
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Kansas
1%
Tennessee
1%
Virginie
1%
Texas
1%
Nebraska
1%
Alabama
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
VCU
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
Louisville
<1%
Utah State
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Marché ouvert : Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan leads trader consensus at 20.5% implied probability for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title, fueled by its No. 1-ranked 2025 recruiting class under Dusty May, including five-star talents like Trey McNutt and Durral Brooks alongside key returners. Arizona (19.8%) and Duke (16.5%) trail closely, bolstered by their own top-five hauls—Koa Peat and Jalil Bethea, respectively—plus aggressive transfer portal moves retaining elite production. Florida's surge to 9.2% reflects Todd Golden's portal dominance and four-star signees, while Houston's defensive pedigree endures despite graduations. This parity stems from widespread recruiting parity, unresolved transfer impacts, and early-season variables like non-conference schedules, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing high-variance futures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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