Arizona holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title at 27.4% implied probability, with Michigan (23.5%) and Duke (22.5%) close behind, reflecting the razor-thin margins among these top 1-seeds still alive in the Sweet 16 after dominant first- and second-round wins. All three entered March Madness as AP Top 3 teams with near-perfect records—Duke and Arizona at 32-2, Michigan 31-3—and have advanced via convincing victories, showcasing elite efficiency on both ends per KenPom ratings. Illinois (11.6%) lurks as a Big Ten contender with strong recent form, while UConn and Purdue round out viable threats, underscoring the bracket's parity and potential for upsets en route to the Final Four.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourArizona 27.4%
Michigan 24%
Duke 23%
Illinois 11.8%
$21,985,130 Vol.
$21,985,130 Vol.
Arizona
27%
Michigan
24%
Duke
23%
Illinois
12%
Purdue
5%
Connecticut
5%
Tennessee
3%
Iowa
2%
Michigan State
<1%
Iowa State
<1%
Arizona 27.4%
Michigan 24%
Duke 23%
Illinois 11.8%
$21,985,130 Vol.
$21,985,130 Vol.
Arizona
27%
Michigan
24%
Duke
23%
Illinois
12%
Purdue
5%
Connecticut
5%
Tennessee
3%
Iowa
2%
Michigan State
<1%
Iowa State
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Marché ouvert : Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Arizona holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title at 27.4% implied probability, with Michigan (23.5%) and Duke (22.5%) close behind, reflecting the razor-thin margins among these top 1-seeds still alive in the Sweet 16 after dominant first- and second-round wins. All three entered March Madness as AP Top 3 teams with near-perfect records—Duke and Arizona at 32-2, Michigan 31-3—and have advanced via convincing victories, showcasing elite efficiency on both ends per KenPom ratings. Illinois (11.6%) lurks as a Big Ten contender with strong recent form, while UConn and Purdue round out viable threats, underscoring the bracket's parity and potential for upsets en route to the Final Four.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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