With the full 48-team field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup locked in after March 31 playoff finals—where Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Turkey, and Sweden secured spots via penalty shootouts over Italy, Denmark, Kosovo, and Poland—trader consensus gives Spain a slim 15.8% implied probability edge, driven by their flawless qualifiers, Euro 2024 title, and youthful depth featuring Yamal and Pedri. France (13%) follows closely on a recent 3-1 friendly rout of Colombia and top power rankings, while England (12%) holds firm with attacking talent despite form wobbles. Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) round out the top five as defending champions and perennial contenders, respectively, but the expanded 48-team group stage, balanced draws, and two months until kickoff keep probabilities bunched amid potential injury shifts and momentum swings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
France 13.0%
Angleterre 12.0%
Argentine 9.3%
$465,740,314 Vol.
$465,740,314 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Uruguay
1%
Suisse
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irak
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
France 13.0%
Angleterre 12.0%
Argentine 9.3%
$465,740,314 Vol.
$465,740,314 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Uruguay
1%
Suisse
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irak
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the full 48-team field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup locked in after March 31 playoff finals—where Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Turkey, and Sweden secured spots via penalty shootouts over Italy, Denmark, Kosovo, and Poland—trader consensus gives Spain a slim 15.8% implied probability edge, driven by their flawless qualifiers, Euro 2024 title, and youthful depth featuring Yamal and Pedri. France (13%) follows closely on a recent 3-1 friendly rout of Colombia and top power rankings, while England (12%) holds firm with attacking talent despite form wobbles. Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) round out the top five as defending champions and perennial contenders, respectively, but the expanded 48-team group stage, balanced draws, and two months until kickoff keep probabilities bunched amid potential injury shifts and momentum swings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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