With the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers concluding March 31 via playoffs—where Bosnia-Herzegovina ousted Italy on penalties, Czechia edged Denmark, Türkiye downed Kosovo, and Sweden beat Poland—the full 48-team field is set, fueling trader consensus that crowns Spain the slim favorite at 16% implied probability. La Roja's edge traces to their dominant UEFA campaign, Euro 2024 triumph, and favorable Group H matchup against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde, bolstered by young talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France (14%), fresh off reclaiming the No. 1 FIFA ranking and recent wins over Brazil and Colombia, trails closely alongside England (12%), whose perfect qualifiers were tempered by friendlies slips. The bunched top probabilities underscore parity among UEFA and CONMEBOL giants—Argentina's defending-champion depth, Brazil's talent pool, Portugal's midfield prowess, Germany's streak—amid the expanded format's top-two-plus-eight-best-thirds advancement, heightening knockout volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
France 13.5%
Angleterre 11.5%
Argentine 9.3%
$491,345,445 Vol.
$491,345,445 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
France 13.5%
Angleterre 11.5%
Argentine 9.3%
$491,345,445 Vol.
$491,345,445 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers concluding March 31 via playoffs—where Bosnia-Herzegovina ousted Italy on penalties, Czechia edged Denmark, Türkiye downed Kosovo, and Sweden beat Poland—the full 48-team field is set, fueling trader consensus that crowns Spain the slim favorite at 16% implied probability. La Roja's edge traces to their dominant UEFA campaign, Euro 2024 triumph, and favorable Group H matchup against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde, bolstered by young talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France (14%), fresh off reclaiming the No. 1 FIFA ranking and recent wins over Brazil and Colombia, trails closely alongside England (12%), whose perfect qualifiers were tempered by friendlies slips. The bunched top probabilities underscore parity among UEFA and CONMEBOL giants—Argentina's defending-champion depth, Brazil's talent pool, Portugal's midfield prowess, Germany's streak—amid the expanded format's top-two-plus-eight-best-thirds advancement, heightening knockout volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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