With the full 48-team FIFA World Cup field locked in after UEFA playoffs on March 31 secured spots for Turkey, Czechia, Sweden, and Bosnia-Herzegovina alongside direct qualifiers like Spain, France, and England, trader consensus reflects a tightly contested race among Europe's elite and South America's powers. Spain edges ahead at 15.9% implied probability after topping UEFA Group E unbeaten, extending a national-record streak past 30 matches amid dynamic form from Euro 2024 champions. France (12.8%) boasts unmatched depth with Mbappé, while England's perfect qualifying run under Tuchel bolsters their case; Argentina's CONMEBOL table-topping finish and Brazil's talent keep probabilities bunched, as the expanded 12-group format introduces path uncertainties and upset potential for all contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
France 12.8%
Angleterre 12.0%
Argentine 9.2%
$463,015,351 Vol.
$463,015,351 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Uruguay
1%
Suisse
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irak
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
France 12.8%
Angleterre 12.0%
Argentine 9.2%
$463,015,351 Vol.
$463,015,351 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Uruguay
1%
Suisse
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Irak
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the full 48-team FIFA World Cup field locked in after UEFA playoffs on March 31 secured spots for Turkey, Czechia, Sweden, and Bosnia-Herzegovina alongside direct qualifiers like Spain, France, and England, trader consensus reflects a tightly contested race among Europe's elite and South America's powers. Spain edges ahead at 15.9% implied probability after topping UEFA Group E unbeaten, extending a national-record streak past 30 matches amid dynamic form from Euro 2024 champions. France (12.8%) boasts unmatched depth with Mbappé, while England's perfect qualifying run under Tuchel bolsters their case; Argentina's CONMEBOL table-topping finish and Brazil's talent keep probabilities bunched, as the expanded 12-group format introduces path uncertainties and upset potential for all contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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