Spain leads trader consensus at 15.7% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the completion of qualifiers and playoffs on March 31, which finalized the 48-team field including debutants like Cape Verde and Curaçao. Their edge stems from a favorable group stage draw and sustained momentum from topping UEFA qualifiers with a dominant record, bolstered by young stars like Yamal and Pedri. France (13.6%) and England (11.4%) trail closely, reflecting robust Nations League form and deep squads led by Mbappé and Bellingham, while Argentina (9.2%) holds strong as defending champions despite Messi's advancing age. Brazil (8.6%) lags amid recent CONMEBOL inconsistencies, keeping the top bunched in a wide-open expanded tournament with host advantages and knockout volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
France 13.6%
Angleterre 11.4%
Argentine 9.2%
$497,356,936 Vol.
$497,356,936 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
14%
Angleterre
11%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
France 13.6%
Angleterre 11.4%
Argentine 9.2%
$497,356,936 Vol.
$497,356,936 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
14%
Angleterre
11%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 15.7% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the completion of qualifiers and playoffs on March 31, which finalized the 48-team field including debutants like Cape Verde and Curaçao. Their edge stems from a favorable group stage draw and sustained momentum from topping UEFA qualifiers with a dominant record, bolstered by young stars like Yamal and Pedri. France (13.6%) and England (11.4%) trail closely, reflecting robust Nations League form and deep squads led by Mbappé and Bellingham, while Argentina (9.2%) holds strong as defending champions despite Messi's advancing age. Brazil (8.6%) lags amid recent CONMEBOL inconsistencies, keeping the top bunched in a wide-open expanded tournament with host advantages and knockout volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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