Spain edges trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the completion of qualifiers on March 31 and the recent group draw, bolstered by a favorable Group H matchup against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and debutants Cape Verde, alongside their sustained elite form as Euro 2024 champions and world number two in the latest FIFA rankings. France (13.7%) reclaimed the top FIFA ranking after two March friendly wins, showcasing Mbappé-led depth; England (11.5%) offers consistent tournament pedigree; defending champions Argentina (9.3%) rely on Messi's experience; and Brazil (8.6%) boasts generational talent like Vinícius Júnior, fostering tight odds in the expanded 48-team format where top-two group advances plus eight best third-placers heighten upset potential among closely ranked European and South American powers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
France 13.7%
Angleterre 11.5%
Argentine 9.3%
$495,172,559 Vol.
$495,172,559 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
14%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
France 13.7%
Angleterre 11.5%
Argentine 9.3%
$495,172,559 Vol.
$495,172,559 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
14%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain edges trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the completion of qualifiers on March 31 and the recent group draw, bolstered by a favorable Group H matchup against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and debutants Cape Verde, alongside their sustained elite form as Euro 2024 champions and world number two in the latest FIFA rankings. France (13.7%) reclaimed the top FIFA ranking after two March friendly wins, showcasing Mbappé-led depth; England (11.5%) offers consistent tournament pedigree; defending champions Argentina (9.3%) rely on Messi's experience; and Brazil (8.6%) boasts generational talent like Vinícius Júnior, fostering tight odds in the expanded 48-team format where top-two group advances plus eight best third-placers heighten upset potential among closely ranked European and South American powers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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