Spain edges trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by a flawless UEFA qualifying campaign including a recent 2-0 victory over Georgia and lingering Euro 2024 momentum with stars like Yamal and Pedri in peak form. England trails closely at 12.8% after demolishing Latvia 5-0 in qualifiers but drawing 1-1 with Uruguay in a March friendly, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities under Tuchel. France (10.9%) and Argentina (10.1%) remain competitive via talent depth—Mbappé's explosiveness and Messi's experience—while Brazil (8.6%) lags from qualifier inconsistencies. This tight cluster reflects parity among UEFA and CONMEBOL powerhouses in the expanded 48-team format, balanced draws, and upset potential across group stage and knockouts on neutral North American soil.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentine 10.1%
$399,140,545 Vol.
$399,140,545 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentine 10.1%
$399,140,545 Vol.
$399,140,545 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain edges trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by a flawless UEFA qualifying campaign including a recent 2-0 victory over Georgia and lingering Euro 2024 momentum with stars like Yamal and Pedri in peak form. England trails closely at 12.8% after demolishing Latvia 5-0 in qualifiers but drawing 1-1 with Uruguay in a March friendly, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities under Tuchel. France (10.9%) and Argentina (10.1%) remain competitive via talent depth—Mbappé's explosiveness and Messi's experience—while Brazil (8.6%) lags from qualifier inconsistencies. This tight cluster reflects parity among UEFA and CONMEBOL powerhouses in the expanded 48-team format, balanced draws, and upset potential across group stage and knockouts on neutral North American soil.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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