Spain leads trader consensus at 16% implied probability following an unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign, recently capped by a 4-0 demolition of Bulgaria, extending momentum from their Euro 2024 triumph with stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri in peak form. England (13%) and France (11%) trail closely on dominant showings, including England's 5-0 rout of Latvia and France's 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil via Kylian Mbappé's goal, highlighting deep squads and attacking firepower. Argentina (10%) banks on Lionel Messi's experience despite his advancing age, while Brazil (9%) contends with Rodrygo's early-March ACL rupture ruling him out. The tight clustering among top European and South American powers reflects qualification parity, stylistic versatility, and looming uncertainties in player fitness, group stage draws, and the expanded 48-team format's upset potential just months from kickoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentine 9.8%
$415,786,725 Vol.
$415,786,725 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentine 9.8%
$415,786,725 Vol.
$415,786,725 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus at 16% implied probability following an unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign, recently capped by a 4-0 demolition of Bulgaria, extending momentum from their Euro 2024 triumph with stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri in peak form. England (13%) and France (11%) trail closely on dominant showings, including England's 5-0 rout of Latvia and France's 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil via Kylian Mbappé's goal, highlighting deep squads and attacking firepower. Argentina (10%) banks on Lionel Messi's experience despite his advancing age, while Brazil (9%) contends with Rodrygo's early-March ACL rupture ruling him out. The tight clustering among top European and South American powers reflects qualification parity, stylistic versatility, and looming uncertainties in player fitness, group stage draws, and the expanded 48-team format's upset potential just months from kickoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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