Spain holds a slim edge as trader consensus favorite at 16% implied probability following their dramatic UEFA playoff qualification over the Netherlands via penalties on March 23 after a 5-5 aggregate thriller, showcasing the resilience of their young golden generation including Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France (13%) and England (12%) trail closely, bolstered by deep talent pools and recent Nations League form, while Argentina (9%) and Brazil (9%) benefit from Copa América pedigree and Brazil's fresh 3-1 friendly win over Croatia. With 48-team expansion finalized post-late March intercontinental playoffs—yielding surprises like Bosnia-Herzegovina upsetting Italy—the wide-open field, host advantages for low-priced USA/Canada/Mexico, and uncertain draws keep probabilities tightly bunched among Europe's elite and South American powers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 16.0%
France 12.7%
Angleterre 12.0%
Argentine 9.3%
$462,145,687 Vol.
$462,145,687 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Panama
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Irak
<1%
Espagne 16.0%
France 12.7%
Angleterre 12.0%
Argentine 9.3%
$462,145,687 Vol.
$462,145,687 Vol.
Espagne
16%
France
13%
Angleterre
12%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Belgique
2%
Japon
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Turquie
1%
Sénégal
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Iran
<1%
Panama
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Irak
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge as trader consensus favorite at 16% implied probability following their dramatic UEFA playoff qualification over the Netherlands via penalties on March 23 after a 5-5 aggregate thriller, showcasing the resilience of their young golden generation including Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France (13%) and England (12%) trail closely, bolstered by deep talent pools and recent Nations League form, while Argentina (9%) and Brazil (9%) benefit from Copa América pedigree and Brazil's fresh 3-1 friendly win over Croatia. With 48-team expansion finalized post-late March intercontinental playoffs—yielding surprises like Bosnia-Herzegovina upsetting Italy—the wide-open field, host advantages for low-priced USA/Canada/Mexico, and uncertain draws keep probabilities tightly bunched among Europe's elite and South American powers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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