Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, seamless qualifiers, and a favorable group draw that delays clashes with powerhouses like Argentina and France until semifinals. England (12.8%) surges on a dominant 5-0 thrashing of Latvia in recent European qualifiers, showcasing Kane and Bellingham's synergy, while France (10.8%) holds firm with Mbappé's scoring prowess despite Arsenal absences like Saliba. Argentina (9.9%) clings to defending champion status amid Messi's fitness concerns, and Brazil (8.6%) eyes redemption via Vinícius Júnior despite Gabriel's knee injury sidelining him. The bunched top reflects balanced paths in the 48-team format, elite talent depth, and no decisive disruptions from ongoing playoffs or March friendlies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 10.8%
Argentine 9.9%
$406,830,849 Vol.
$406,830,849 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
3%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
Maroc
2%
États-Unis
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 10.8%
Argentine 9.9%
$406,830,849 Vol.
$406,830,849 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
3%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
Maroc
2%
États-Unis
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, seamless qualifiers, and a favorable group draw that delays clashes with powerhouses like Argentina and France until semifinals. England (12.8%) surges on a dominant 5-0 thrashing of Latvia in recent European qualifiers, showcasing Kane and Bellingham's synergy, while France (10.8%) holds firm with Mbappé's scoring prowess despite Arsenal absences like Saliba. Argentina (9.9%) clings to defending champion status amid Messi's fitness concerns, and Brazil (8.6%) eyes redemption via Vinícius Júnior despite Gabriel's knee injury sidelining him. The bunched top reflects balanced paths in the 48-team format, elite talent depth, and no decisive disruptions from ongoing playoffs or March friendlies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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