Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, Nations League dominance, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal blending seamlessly with veterans, as affirmed in recent ESPN power rankings placing them atop contenders 100 days out. The tight clustering through Brazil at 8.6% underscores a fiercely competitive landscape, with France's 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 26—powered by Kylian Mbappé's goal and Hugo Ekitike's strike despite a red card—highlighting Les Bleus' resilience, while England's depth via Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, Argentina's Lionel Messi-led experience as defending champions, and Brazil's five-time pedigree keep odds bunched amid favorable group draws separating elites until knockout stages in the expanded 48-team format.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentine 10.0%
$403,708,632 Vol.
$403,708,632 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
3%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentine 10.0%
$403,708,632 Vol.
$403,708,632 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
3%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, Nations League dominance, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal blending seamlessly with veterans, as affirmed in recent ESPN power rankings placing them atop contenders 100 days out. The tight clustering through Brazil at 8.6% underscores a fiercely competitive landscape, with France's 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 26—powered by Kylian Mbappé's goal and Hugo Ekitike's strike despite a red card—highlighting Les Bleus' resilience, while England's depth via Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, Argentina's Lionel Messi-led experience as defending champions, and Brazil's five-time pedigree keep odds bunched amid favorable group draws separating elites until knockout stages in the expanded 48-team format.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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