Spain leads trader consensus at a 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, propelled by their Euro 2024 success, potent young attack featuring Lamine Yamal, and solid Nations League form, yet the race remains tightly bunched with England (12.8%) bolstered by Thomas Tuchel's recent 35-man squad announcement amid Trent Alexander-Arnold's omission, France (10.9%) relying on star depth despite injury risks, defending champions Argentina (10.1%) navigating Lionel Messi's age, and Brazil (8.6%) leveraging CONMEBOL qualification dominance. March 26 UEFA playoff results, like Czech Republic's penalty shootout win over Republic of Ireland, finalized the European field without shifting top contenders, while Spain's hopeful Nico Williams injury recovery and North American hosting's travel fatigue for South Americans heighten competitive parity in the expanded 48-team format.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentine 10.1%
$399,452,944 Vol.
$399,452,944 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Espagne 15.8%
Angleterre 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentine 10.1%
$399,452,944 Vol.
$399,452,944 Vol.
Espagne
16%
Angleterre
13%
France
11%
Argentine
10%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
3%
Italie
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Japon
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Mexique
1%
Équateur
1%
Suisse
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus at a 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, propelled by their Euro 2024 success, potent young attack featuring Lamine Yamal, and solid Nations League form, yet the race remains tightly bunched with England (12.8%) bolstered by Thomas Tuchel's recent 35-man squad announcement amid Trent Alexander-Arnold's omission, France (10.9%) relying on star depth despite injury risks, defending champions Argentina (10.1%) navigating Lionel Messi's age, and Brazil (8.6%) leveraging CONMEBOL qualification dominance. March 26 UEFA playoff results, like Czech Republic's penalty shootout win over Republic of Ireland, finalized the European field without shifting top contenders, while Spain's hopeful Nico Williams injury recovery and North American hosting's travel fatigue for South Americans heighten competitive parity in the expanded 48-team format.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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