Name: Will Harvard get fewer applicants this year?
Start: 2023-12-07T18:10:52.045Z
End: 2024-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if number of applicants to Harvard for the Class of 2028 is lower than the number of applicants for the class of 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first release of information by Harvard on the number of applicants for the Class of 2028, regardless of whether that information is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Harvard University (e.g. https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics, https://oira.harvard.edu/factbook/fact-book-admissions/, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

If no information is released for applicants to Harvard for the Class of 2028 by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Will Harvard get fewer applicants this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only podcast released by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Adobe currently scheduled to take place on December 10, 2025 at 5:00 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Adobe say "Semrush" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Oracle currently scheduled to take place on December 10, 2025 at 4:00 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Oracle say "OpenAI" during earnings call?

The CDC reported a general fertility rate of 53.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q2 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q3 2025 exceeds 53.7, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q3 2025 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q3 2025, regardless of any subsequent revisions.

The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.

US fertility rate up in Q3 2025?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Nike currently scheduled to take place on December 18, 2025 at 5:00 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Nike say "China" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to “No change” if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "No change" is the favorite in the Fed decision in January? market (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) during the specified period.

This market will resolve to “25 bps cut" if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "25 bps decrease" is the favorite during that period.

The favorite will be determined by examining the four-hour window between 2 PM and 6 PM on December 10, 2025.

This market will resolve to whichever of  "No change" or "25 bps decrease" is ahead in more individual minutes during this window.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "50-50".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. If a listed option resolves “Yes,” this market will resolve immediately in favor of the corresponding market. Accordingly, if a listed option resolves “No,” this market will resolve in favor of the other option. If both options simultaneously resolve in the same direction, such as in the case of a negrisk market in which another option resolves “Yes”, this market will resolve 50-50. 

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/no-change-or-25-bps-decrease-favored-for-fed-decision-in-january-on-december-10-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Perplexity AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Perplexity AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Perplexity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Perplexity in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and/or Meghan, Duchess of Sussex announce their intention to divorce between December 30, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Harry and/or Meghan, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Costco currently scheduled to take place on December 11, 2025 at 4:00 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Costco say "Membership" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of FedEx currently scheduled to take place on December 18, 2025 at 4:30 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will FedEx say "Guidance" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Broadcom currently scheduled to take place on December 11, 2025 at 5:00 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Broadcom say "Hyperscaler" during earnings call?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Indiana win the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Snowflake currently scheduled to take place on November 26, 2025 at 5:00 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Snowflake say "Repurchase" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

Robinhood is scheduled to stream on December 16, 2025, 9PM ET. (https://x.com/robinhoodapp/status/1995559179822510267)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled stream. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such stream is aired by December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will "AI" be said during the Robinhood stream?

This market will resolve according to the driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1. 


Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf

Google Gemini Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. House election: Republicans flip the Democrats by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

The total number of crime complaints recorded by the Police Department of the City of New York for the week of 11/24/2025 through 11/30/2025 was 2,030.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the NYPD records a number of total incidents higher than the indicated number in its next released weekly report (12/1/2025 - 12/7/2025). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYPD, specifically the "City Wide Crime Statistics Weekly" report found here: https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/citywide-crime-stats.page

If this release has not been posted by December 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

NYC crime up this week?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Snapchat by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where Snapchat is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between Snapchat and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Snapchat and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Snapchat acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)

Canada recession before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only previously unreleased files which contain novel material not previously available to the public will qualify. Documents that are merely re-released, have had redactions removed, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify.

Any mention of the listed individual in connection with Jeffrey Epstein will qualify, regardless of if connected to nefarious or illegal activities.

Previously unreleased files is inclusive of any written, audio, photo or video documentation (e.g., qualifying photos which depict the listed individual will count).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Harvard get fewer applicants this year?

Market Context

Will Harvard get fewer applicants this year?

Rules

Will Harvard get fewer applicants this year?

Market Context

Will Harvard get fewer applicants this year?

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