Vermont's at-large House district has favored Democrats for decades, with no Republican elected since the early 1990s, reflecting the state's consistent partisan lean. Incumbent Becca Balint benefits from this base, strong name recognition after two terms, and a sizable fundraising edge over Republican Gerald Malloy, who won his party's primary but trails in recent University of New Hampshire polling at roughly 25 percent support. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural and polling realities. A major national political shift, late scandal involving Balint, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators suggest limited realistic paths for Malloy to close the gap before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVT-AL House Election Winner
VT-AL House Election Winner
$40,670 Vol.
$40,670 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Becca Balint (D)
94%
Gerald Malloy (R)
5%
$40,670 Vol.
$40,670 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Becca Balint (D)
$9,054 Vol.
94%
Gerald Malloy (R)
$31,616 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont's at-large House district has favored Democrats for decades, with no Republican elected since the early 1990s, reflecting the state's consistent partisan lean. Incumbent Becca Balint benefits from this base, strong name recognition after two terms, and a sizable fundraising edge over Republican Gerald Malloy, who won his party's primary but trails in recent University of New Hampshire polling at roughly 25 percent support. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural and polling realities. A major national political shift, late scandal involving Balint, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators suggest limited realistic paths for Malloy to close the gap before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$40,670End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont's at-large House district has favored Democrats for decades, with no Republican elected since the early 1990s, reflecting the state's consistent partisan lean. Incumbent Becca Balint benefits from this base, strong name recognition after two terms, and a sizable fundraising edge over Republican Gerald Malloy, who won his party's primary but trails in recent University of New Hampshire polling at roughly 25 percent support. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural and polling realities. A major national political shift, late scandal involving Balint, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators suggest limited realistic paths for Malloy to close the gap before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,670End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Vermont's at-large House district has favored Democrats for decades, with no Republican elected since the early 1990s, reflecting the state's consistent partisan lean. Incumbent Becca Balint benefits from this base, strong name recognition after two terms, and a sizable fundraising edge over Republican Gerald Malloy, who won his party's primary but trails in recent University of New Hampshire polling at roughly 25 percent support. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with these structural and polling realities. A major national political shift, late scandal involving Balint, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators suggest limited realistic paths for Malloy to close the gap before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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