icon for US recession in 2025?

Economy·Business

US recession in 2025?

icon for US recession in 2025?

Economy·Business

US recession in 2025?

<1% chance

$11,734,512 Vol.

$11,734,512 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

<1% chance

$11,734,512 Vol.

$11,734,512 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met: 1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Jun 16 2025

Fed Rate Decision Looms

The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision is creating significant anticipation, with Polymarket users predicting a 97.5% chance of no rate cut this week, while inflation remains below the Fed’s target at 1.2%. Additionally, escalating Israel-Iran tensions threaten to spike oil prices to $130 per barrel, potentially doubling US inflation to 5%, alongside critical rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England.

Jun 12 2025

Economic Growth Surges

Recent data shows a robust U.S. economy with Q2 GDP growth estimated at 3.8%, job additions exceeding expectations at 139,000 in May, and inflation lower than anticipated at 0.1% month-over-month. Despite some concerns over tariff impacts and a slight economic contraction in recent weeks, recession probabilities have significantly dropped, with forecasts now ranging between 22% and 30%.

Jun 2 2025

Trump Sparks TACO Trade

A new wave of market strategies dubbed 'TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out) and 'Anywhere But The USA' emerges as investors react to Trump's tariff announcements and subsequent backpedaling, creating volatility and uncertainty. Additional terms like 'Trump Collar' are also gaining traction, reflecting ongoing concerns over unpredictable policy shifts and their impact on stocks.

May 13 2025

US-China Trade Deal

A landmark US-China trade deal has significantly reduced tariffs, with the US slashing rates on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China cutting retaliatory tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%, sparking a 90-day truce starting May 14, 2025. This agreement has lowered recession odds for 2025 to around 35-40%, as reported by Goldman Sachs and Polymarket, while the Fed is now expected to implement only one interest rate cut instead of three.

Apr 7 2025

Wall Street Sounds Alarm

Market predictions and financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are signaling a high probability of a US recession in 2025, with odds spiking to 67% on platforms like Polymarket due to Trump's tariff policies. These policies, alongside tightening financial conditions and foreign consumer boycotts, have led to slashed GDP growth forecasts and heightened economic uncertainty.

Mar 20 2025

Fed Slows QT Pace

The Federal Reserve has decided to slow the pace of its quantitative tightening by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion, while keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. This decision comes amid concerns over persistent inflation, cooling economic growth projected at 1.7% for 2025, and the potential impact of new tariffs and policies on the economy.

Mar 4 2025

Major Tariffs Imposed

President Donald Trump has implemented significant tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, and 20% on China, sparking immediate economic concerns and retaliatory actions from affected countries. These policies have led to fears of rising consumer prices, declining exports, and potential recession, while China and Canada have already announced counter-tariffs on U.S. goods.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met: 1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Jun 16 2025

Fed Rate Decision Looms

The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision is creating significant anticipation, with Polymarket users predicting a 97.5% chance of no rate cut this week, while inflation remains below the Fed’s target at 1.2%. Additionally, escalating Israel-Iran tensions threaten to spike oil prices to $130 per barrel, potentially doubling US inflation to 5%, alongside critical rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England.

Jun 12 2025

Economic Growth Surges

Recent data shows a robust U.S. economy with Q2 GDP growth estimated at 3.8%, job additions exceeding expectations at 139,000 in May, and inflation lower than anticipated at 0.1% month-over-month. Despite some concerns over tariff impacts and a slight economic contraction in recent weeks, recession probabilities have significantly dropped, with forecasts now ranging between 22% and 30%.

Jun 2 2025

Trump Sparks TACO Trade

A new wave of market strategies dubbed 'TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out) and 'Anywhere But The USA' emerges as investors react to Trump's tariff announcements and subsequent backpedaling, creating volatility and uncertainty. Additional terms like 'Trump Collar' are also gaining traction, reflecting ongoing concerns over unpredictable policy shifts and their impact on stocks.

May 13 2025

US-China Trade Deal

A landmark US-China trade deal has significantly reduced tariffs, with the US slashing rates on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China cutting retaliatory tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%, sparking a 90-day truce starting May 14, 2025. This agreement has lowered recession odds for 2025 to around 35-40%, as reported by Goldman Sachs and Polymarket, while the Fed is now expected to implement only one interest rate cut instead of three.

Apr 7 2025

Wall Street Sounds Alarm

Market predictions and financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are signaling a high probability of a US recession in 2025, with odds spiking to 67% on platforms like Polymarket due to Trump's tariff policies. These policies, alongside tightening financial conditions and foreign consumer boycotts, have led to slashed GDP growth forecasts and heightened economic uncertainty.

Mar 20 2025

Fed Slows QT Pace

The Federal Reserve has decided to slow the pace of its quantitative tightening by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion, while keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. This decision comes amid concerns over persistent inflation, cooling economic growth projected at 1.7% for 2025, and the potential impact of new tariffs and policies on the economy.

Mar 4 2025

Major Tariffs Imposed

President Donald Trump has implemented significant tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, and 20% on China, sparking immediate economic concerns and retaliatory actions from affected countries. These policies have led to fears of rising consumer prices, declining exports, and potential recession, while China and Canada have already announced counter-tariffs on U.S. goods.

Beware of external links.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US recession in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US recession in 2025?" has generated $11.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 8, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US recession in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US recession in 2025?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US recession in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "US recession in 2025?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $11.7 million traded on “US recession in 2025?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of "Yes" or "No" represents the market's implied probability. A "Yes" price of 0¢ for "US recession in 2025?" means traders collectively believe there is a 0% chance this event will happen. If you buy "Yes" at 0¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 100¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

The "US recession in 2025?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "US recession in 2025?" market has an active community of 707 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "US recession in 2025?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.