Ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing continues to drive global mean surface temperatures toward the 1.10–1.14°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline for May 2026, consistent with the multi-year warming trajectory observed in ERA5 and NOAA datasets. ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed through early 2026 before a transition toward El Niño began, with models indicating an 82% probability of El Niño emergence during May–July; this shift had not yet produced substantial additional warming by May and introduced limited short-term variability. Recent months showed anomalies near 1.47°C (January) and 1.18°C (February relative to 20th-century average), yet traders’ strong consensus around 1.12°C reflects the expectation that May will align closely with the underlying trend rather than recent peaks. Updated seasonal forecasts from WMO and NMME will provide the next key data points for refining this outlook.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 90%
<1.10ºC 10%
1.15–1.19ºC 1.4%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$157,907 Vol.
$157,907 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
10%
1.10–1.14ºC
90%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 90%
<1.10ºC 10%
1.15–1.19ºC 1.4%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$157,907 Vol.
$157,907 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$52,492 Vol.
10%
1.10–1.14ºC
$20,890 Vol.
90%
1.15–1.19ºC
$24,899 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$19,570 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$18,025 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$22,105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing continues to drive global mean surface temperatures toward the 1.10–1.14°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline for May 2026, consistent with the multi-year warming trajectory observed in ERA5 and NOAA datasets. ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed through early 2026 before a transition toward El Niño began, with models indicating an 82% probability of El Niño emergence during May–July; this shift had not yet produced substantial additional warming by May and introduced limited short-term variability. Recent months showed anomalies near 1.47°C (January) and 1.18°C (February relative to 20th-century average), yet traders’ strong consensus around 1.12°C reflects the expectation that May will align closely with the underlying trend rather than recent peaks. Updated seasonal forecasts from WMO and NMME will provide the next key data points for refining this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
ভলিউম
$157,907শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing continues to drive global mean surface temperatures toward the 1.10–1.14°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline for May 2026, consistent with the multi-year warming trajectory observed in ERA5 and NOAA datasets. ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed through early 2026 before a transition toward El Niño began, with models indicating an 82% probability of El Niño emergence during May–July; this shift had not yet produced substantial additional warming by May and introduced limited short-term variability. Recent months showed anomalies near 1.47°C (January) and 1.18°C (February relative to 20th-century average), yet traders’ strong consensus around 1.12°C reflects the expectation that May will align closely with the underlying trend rather than recent peaks. Updated seasonal forecasts from WMO and NMME will provide the next key data points for refining this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$157,907শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing continues to drive global mean surface temperatures toward the 1.10–1.14°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline for May 2026, consistent with the multi-year warming trajectory observed in ERA5 and NOAA datasets. ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed through early 2026 before a transition toward El Niño began, with models indicating an 82% probability of El Niño emergence during May–July; this shift had not yet produced substantial additional warming by May and introduced limited short-term variability. Recent months showed anomalies near 1.47°C (January) and 1.18°C (February relative to 20th-century average), yet traders’ strong consensus around 1.12°C reflects the expectation that May will align closely with the underlying trend rather than recent peaks. Updated seasonal forecasts from WMO and NMME will provide the next key data points for refining this outlook.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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