The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly toward +0.9 °C in the Niño 3.4 region by mid-May 2026, stands as the main driver keeping the 1.10–1.14 °C bin in the lead. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides a steady baseline near 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, while the emerging El Niño adds a modest positive boost to global mean surface temperatures this month. Early 2026 observations, including January anomalies of 1.12 °C, align with this range, and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño formation by May–July without yet indicating extreme amplification. Traders are monitoring upcoming weekly Niño indices and May temperature releases from NOAA and NASA for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 54%
<1.10ºC 22%
1.15–1.19ºC 7%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,807 Vol.
$85,807 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
22%
1.10–1.14ºC
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
7%
1.20–1.24ºC
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 54%
<1.10ºC 22%
1.15–1.19ºC 7%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,807 Vol.
$85,807 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,816 Vol.
22%
1.10–1.14ºC
$8,596 Vol.
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
$15,036 Vol.
7%
1.20–1.24ºC
$11,552 Vol.
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
$9,978 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$12,830 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly toward +0.9 °C in the Niño 3.4 region by mid-May 2026, stands as the main driver keeping the 1.10–1.14 °C bin in the lead. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides a steady baseline near 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, while the emerging El Niño adds a modest positive boost to global mean surface temperatures this month. Early 2026 observations, including January anomalies of 1.12 °C, align with this range, and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño formation by May–July without yet indicating extreme amplification. Traders are monitoring upcoming weekly Niño indices and May temperature releases from NOAA and NASA for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
ভলিউম
$85,807শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly toward +0.9 °C in the Niño 3.4 region by mid-May 2026, stands as the main driver keeping the 1.10–1.14 °C bin in the lead. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides a steady baseline near 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, while the emerging El Niño adds a modest positive boost to global mean surface temperatures this month. Early 2026 observations, including January anomalies of 1.12 °C, align with this range, and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño formation by May–July without yet indicating extreme amplification. Traders are monitoring upcoming weekly Niño indices and May temperature releases from NOAA and NASA for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$85,807শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly toward +0.9 °C in the Niño 3.4 region by mid-May 2026, stands as the main driver keeping the 1.10–1.14 °C bin in the lead. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides a steady baseline near 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, while the emerging El Niño adds a modest positive boost to global mean surface temperatures this month. Early 2026 observations, including January anomalies of 1.12 °C, align with this range, and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño formation by May–July without yet indicating extreme amplification. Traders are monitoring upcoming weekly Niño indices and May temperature releases from NOAA and NASA for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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