Recent monthly global surface temperature anomalies from NOAA and Copernicus data have clustered near 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average, driven by persistently elevated ocean heat content and the long-term warming trend. With May 2026 data now emerging amid neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions and no major volcanic or aerosol disruptions, trader consensus has converged on the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the most probable outcome consistent with observed patterns. Model runs and historical analogs support this narrow range over sharper deviations. A significant downward revision in final May measurements or an unexpected rapid cooling event would be required to shift probabilities materially, though both remain low-likelihood given current atmospheric and oceanic baselines.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,006 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,254 Vol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,111 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,001 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,400 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,403 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent monthly global surface temperature anomalies from NOAA and Copernicus data have clustered near 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average, driven by persistently elevated ocean heat content and the long-term warming trend. With May 2026 data now emerging amid neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions and no major volcanic or aerosol disruptions, trader consensus has converged on the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the most probable outcome consistent with observed patterns. Model runs and historical analogs support this narrow range over sharper deviations. A significant downward revision in final May measurements or an unexpected rapid cooling event would be required to shift probabilities materially, though both remain low-likelihood given current atmospheric and oceanic baselines.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
ভলিউম
$192,174শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent monthly global surface temperature anomalies from NOAA and Copernicus data have clustered near 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average, driven by persistently elevated ocean heat content and the long-term warming trend. With May 2026 data now emerging amid neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions and no major volcanic or aerosol disruptions, trader consensus has converged on the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the most probable outcome consistent with observed patterns. Model runs and historical analogs support this narrow range over sharper deviations. A significant downward revision in final May measurements or an unexpected rapid cooling event would be required to shift probabilities materially, though both remain low-likelihood given current atmospheric and oceanic baselines.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$192,174শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly global surface temperature anomalies from NOAA and Copernicus data have clustered near 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average, driven by persistently elevated ocean heat content and the long-term warming trend. With May 2026 data now emerging amid neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions and no major volcanic or aerosol disruptions, trader consensus has converged on the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the most probable outcome consistent with observed patterns. Model runs and historical analogs support this narrow range over sharper deviations. A significant downward revision in final May measurements or an unexpected rapid cooling event would be required to shift probabilities materially, though both remain low-likelihood given current atmospheric and oceanic baselines.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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