Recent developments show El Niño conditions emerging in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA issuing an advisory in mid-June 2026 and models indicating strengthening through year-end, adding to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent global anomalies near 1.2°C. This combination favors June 2026 landing in the 1.15–1.19°C range above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the market's leading outcome, as the event's early influence on sea-surface temperatures aligns with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño episodes elevate monthly global means by several tenths of a degree. NOAA and WMO outlooks highlight near-universal above-average land and ocean temperatures for June–August, though model spread and the precise timing of peak Niño3.4 warming introduce modest uncertainty around the exact monthly value.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.4%
$14,024 Vol.
$14,024 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.4%
$14,024 Vol.
$14,024 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,965 Vol.
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
$466 Vol.
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,721 Vol.
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent developments show El Niño conditions emerging in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA issuing an advisory in mid-June 2026 and models indicating strengthening through year-end, adding to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent global anomalies near 1.2°C. This combination favors June 2026 landing in the 1.15–1.19°C range above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the market's leading outcome, as the event's early influence on sea-surface temperatures aligns with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño episodes elevate monthly global means by several tenths of a degree. NOAA and WMO outlooks highlight near-universal above-average land and ocean temperatures for June–August, though model spread and the precise timing of peak Niño3.4 warming introduce modest uncertainty around the exact monthly value.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$14,024Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent developments show El Niño conditions emerging in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA issuing an advisory in mid-June 2026 and models indicating strengthening through year-end, adding to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent global anomalies near 1.2°C. This combination favors June 2026 landing in the 1.15–1.19°C range above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the market's leading outcome, as the event's early influence on sea-surface temperatures aligns with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño episodes elevate monthly global means by several tenths of a degree. NOAA and WMO outlooks highlight near-universal above-average land and ocean temperatures for June–August, though model spread and the precise timing of peak Niño3.4 warming introduce modest uncertainty around the exact monthly value.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,024Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments show El Niño conditions emerging in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA issuing an advisory in mid-June 2026 and models indicating strengthening through year-end, adding to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent global anomalies near 1.2°C. This combination favors June 2026 landing in the 1.15–1.19°C range above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the market's leading outcome, as the event's early influence on sea-surface temperatures aligns with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño episodes elevate monthly global means by several tenths of a degree. NOAA and WMO outlooks highlight near-universal above-average land and ocean temperatures for June–August, though model spread and the precise timing of peak Niño3.4 warming introduce modest uncertainty around the exact monthly value.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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