President Trump's April 3, 2026, fiscal year 2027 budget proposal requested $152 million from Congress to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Island—currently a National Park Service historic site—as a state-of-the-art federal prison under the Bureau of Prisons, aiming to house high-risk inmates. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers, including multi-billion-dollar total costs, seismic vulnerabilities in San Francisco Bay, strong opposition from California officials like former House Speaker Pelosi who deemed it "absurd," and preservation mandates conflicting with the site's tourism role drawing 1.2 million visitors annually. No congressional action has followed the request, with full operational reopening requiring years beyond 2026 amid the ongoing appropriations process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 3, 2026, fiscal year 2027 budget proposal requested $152 million from Congress to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Island—currently a National Park Service historic site—as a state-of-the-art federal prison under the Bureau of Prisons, aiming to house high-risk inmates. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers, including multi-billion-dollar total costs, seismic vulnerabilities in San Francisco Bay, strong opposition from California officials like former House Speaker Pelosi who deemed it "absurd," and preservation mandates conflicting with the site's tourism role drawing 1.2 million visitors annually. No congressional action has followed the request, with full operational reopening requiring years beyond 2026 amid the ongoing appropriations process.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$839End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 3, 2026, fiscal year 2027 budget proposal requested $152 million from Congress to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Island—currently a National Park Service historic site—as a state-of-the-art federal prison under the Bureau of Prisons, aiming to house high-risk inmates. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers, including multi-billion-dollar total costs, seismic vulnerabilities in San Francisco Bay, strong opposition from California officials like former House Speaker Pelosi who deemed it "absurd," and preservation mandates conflicting with the site's tourism role drawing 1.2 million visitors annually. No congressional action has followed the request, with full operational reopening requiring years beyond 2026 amid the ongoing appropriations process.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$839End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 3, 2026, fiscal year 2027 budget proposal requested $152 million from Congress to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Island—currently a National Park Service historic site—as a state-of-the-art federal prison under the Bureau of Prisons, aiming to house high-risk inmates. Traders' 87.5% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers, including multi-billion-dollar total costs, seismic vulnerabilities in San Francisco Bay, strong opposition from California officials like former House Speaker Pelosi who deemed it "absurd," and preservation mandates conflicting with the site's tourism role drawing 1.2 million visitors annually. No congressional action has followed the request, with full operational reopening requiring years beyond 2026 amid the ongoing appropriations process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions