Name: Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?
Start: 2023-11-29T18:38:28.697Z
End: 2024-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Guyana by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Venezuela, Guyana, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


December 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Guyana by January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Venezuela, Guyana, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


January 31

Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Venezuela antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

If the listed individual visits Venezuela between market creation and March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the individual physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not the individual enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Charles Myers visitará Venezuela antes del 31 de marzo de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

¿Invadirá EE. UU. un país de América Latina en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se convertirá Venezuela en el estado 51?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

¿Declarará oficialmente Estados Unidos la guerra a Venezuela antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Intento de golpe de Estado en Venezuela antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿EE.UU. reconoce a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de enero?

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Entrará María Corina Machado a Venezuela antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Venezuela by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Venezuela. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Venezuela as a state actor.

General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Venezuela will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿El Congreso autoriza el uso de la fuerza militar contra Venezuela antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Colombia en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

¿Otro ataque estadounidense a Venezuela antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela’s current leader, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, is removed from power for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Rodríguez will be considered to be removed from power if she resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Acting President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Delcy Rodríguez fuera como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Qatar by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Qatar if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Qatar for an extended period. 

Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify, he must actually move there. 

Visits or trips to Qatar will not count.

Imprisonment or detention in Qatar will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

¿Maduro exiliado a Catar antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030.

This market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Está programada la elección en Venezuela para antes del 31 de marzo de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities against Venezuela between the date of market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The market will resolve based on the listed date of the report. This market may stay open until 10 days after the listed date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Trump invoca los Poderes de Guerra contra Venezuela antes del 31 de enero?

The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Venezuela.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Venezuela or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy in Venezuela will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S. and Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Reabrirá la embajada de Estados Unidos en Venezuela antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. 

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.  

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan  government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. 

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. 

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. 

Note: this market is mutually exclusive. 


¿Será Delcy Rodríguez la líder de Venezuela a finales de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the US and Venezuela between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the US and Venezuela; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the US and Venezuela has been reached will suffice.

¿Alto al fuego entre EE. UU. y Venezuela antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

¿Invadirá EE. UU. a Cuba en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period. 

Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there. 

Visits or trips to Russia will not count.

Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

¿Maduro exiliado a Rusia antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if authentic helmet/body-cam video footage recorded after January 2 that shows U.S. forces physically capturing (taking into custody) President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela is made widely available to the public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if such capture footage becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or published by media.

Qualifying footage must be at least 5 seconds in length and depict the moment Maduro is physically apprehended or restrained (or immediately thereafter while still at/within the capture location in Venezuela) in a way that makes it clear from the video that the operation is effecting his capture. Footage of Maduro already in custody outside Venezuela (e.g., aboard a ship/aircraft, at an airport, or at a U.S. facility) will not count unless it also includes the initial apprehension in Venezuela. Still images alone will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


¿Se publicará la grabación de la cámara corporal de la captura de Maduro antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

¿Respaldará Trump a María Corina Machado para presidenta de Venezuela en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Verificación de hechos: la captura de Maduro fue simulada?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.

The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.

This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

¿Alcanzará la producción de petróleo crudo venezolano 1 millón de barriles por día en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a México en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colombia’s current leader, President Gustavo Petro, is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Petro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Colombia within this market's timeframe. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Gustavo Petro fuera como líder de Colombia para el 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


¿Invadirá EE. UU. Groenlandia en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.

Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

¿Rusia invadirá un país de la OTAN para el 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Another US strike on Venezuela
- US strikes Iran
- US strike on Colombia
- US strike on Mexico
- US strike on Cuba

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEHUSStrike.pdf

Nada nunca pasa: Edición Huelga en EE. UU.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Vovchanski Khutory" with a darker grey line.  If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Once Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Vovchansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vovchansk.png 
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

¿Capturará Rusia todo Vovchansk antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Qatar is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Qatari territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

¿Ataque iraní a Qatar antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Borova (49.37457173620971, 37.62233412539868) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Borova is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. 

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

¿Entrará Rusia en Borova antes del 31 de marzo?

If Jia Yueting enters mainland China by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, "entering mainland China" is defined as Jia Yueting physically setting foot within the territory of the People’s Republic of China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

Travel through airspace or territorial waters during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Entrará Jia Yueting a la China continental antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg

Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg

Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

¿Rusia capturará Kostyantynivka antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Anexionará EE. UU. algún territorio en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Enfrentamiento militar entre EE. UU. y Rusia antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Vozdvyzhivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. 

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

¿Entrará Rusia en Vozdvyzhivka antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png

Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg

Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?

December 31
$68,071 Vol.
No

January 31
$23,277 Vol.
No

Contexto del Mercado

Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?

Reglas

Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?

Contexto del Mercado

Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?

Acerca de

Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?

December 31$68,071 Vol.No

January 31$23,277 Vol.No

Contexto del Mercado

Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?

Reglas

Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?

Contexto del Mercado

Will Venezuela invade Guyana by...?

Acerca de

December 31
$68,071 Vol.
No

January 31
$23,277 Vol.
No