Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability that Valve's revived Steam Machine will launch at $700 or more, driven by surging component costs amid AI-fueled DRAM and storage shortages. Recent leaks from retailers like Smarty.cz suggest base models could hit $800–$950, while Valve engineers confirmed no hardware subsidization, aligning pricing with mid-range PC builds comparable to a PS5 Pro. February updates delayed official pricing announcements as memory prices spiked, though slight RAM declines last week offered minor relief without shifting sentiment. With a vague 2026 release window now targeting "this year," traders await pre-order details or supply chain resolutions as key catalysts that could confirm or challenge the high-price trajectory.