The market's 100% implied probability of no hurricane formation by May 31 reflects the absence of any organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin as of late May, with National Hurricane Center monitoring confirming no disturbances poised for rapid intensification. Climatological conditions remain unfavorable, including cooler sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold typically required for sustained development and elevated wind shear that disrupts cyclone organization. Historical records show hurricane formation before June 1 is exceptionally rare, occurring in fewer than 3% of seasons. With the deadline now hours away, no model consensus or observational data indicates a shift is possible.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$54,306 Vol.
$54,306 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$54,306 Vol.
$54,306 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The market's 100% implied probability of no hurricane formation by May 31 reflects the absence of any organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin as of late May, with National Hurricane Center monitoring confirming no disturbances poised for rapid intensification. Climatological conditions remain unfavorable, including cooler sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold typically required for sustained development and elevated wind shear that disrupts cyclone organization. Historical records show hurricane formation before June 1 is exceptionally rare, occurring in fewer than 3% of seasons. With the deadline now hours away, no model consensus or observational data indicates a shift is possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volumen
$54,306Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The market's 100% implied probability of no hurricane formation by May 31 reflects the absence of any organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin as of late May, with National Hurricane Center monitoring confirming no disturbances poised for rapid intensification. Climatological conditions remain unfavorable, including cooler sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold typically required for sustained development and elevated wind shear that disrupts cyclone organization. Historical records show hurricane formation before June 1 is exceptionally rare, occurring in fewer than 3% of seasons. With the deadline now hours away, no model consensus or observational data indicates a shift is possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volumen
$54,306Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market's 100% implied probability of no hurricane formation by May 31 reflects the absence of any organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin as of late May, with National Hurricane Center monitoring confirming no disturbances poised for rapid intensification. Climatological conditions remain unfavorable, including cooler sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold typically required for sustained development and elevated wind shear that disrupts cyclone organization. Historical records show hurricane formation before June 1 is exceptionally rare, occurring in fewer than 3% of seasons. With the deadline now hours away, no model consensus or observational data indicates a shift is possible.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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