Trader consensus strongly backs "No" at 94.2% implied probability for a hurricane forming by May 31, primarily driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Tropical Weather Outlook, which shows no organized disturbances and near-zero development odds over the next seven days in the Atlantic main development region. Cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in key areas, persistent upper-level wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppress cyclone genesis this early in the season—historically, only five Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851. While rare rapid intensification of an unexpected tropical wave could challenge this, current satellite imagery reveals no viable candidates, reinforcing trader conviction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$33,268 Vol.
$33,268 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Sí
$33,268 Vol.
$33,268 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volumen
$33,268Fecha de finalización
May 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volumen
$33,268Fecha de finalización
May 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly backs "No" at 94.2% implied probability for a hurricane forming by May 31, primarily driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Tropical Weather Outlook, which shows no organized disturbances and near-zero development odds over the next seven days in the Atlantic main development region. Cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in key areas, persistent upper-level wind shear, and dry Saharan air suppress cyclone genesis this early in the season—historically, only five Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since 1851. While rare rapid intensification of an unexpected tropical wave could challenge this, current satellite imagery reveals no viable candidates, reinforcing trader conviction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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