Strong scientific consensus from National Hurricane Center monitoring supports the 99.8% market-implied probability on no hurricane formation by May 31. As of late May, official tropical weather outlooks show no active disturbances or organized systems in the Atlantic basin, where the season officially begins June 1. A developing El Niño pattern is enhancing upper-level wind shear that disrupts early cyclogenesis, while sea surface temperatures and steering patterns remain unfavorable for intensification ahead of the climatological start date. In the eastern Pacific, where the season began May 15, the first disturbance formed only recently and has not reached hurricane strength. Traders recognize these verified conditions leave virtually no realistic pathway for a hurricane to develop and be classified before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$54,941 Vol.
$54,941 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$54,941 Vol.
$54,941 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Strong scientific consensus from National Hurricane Center monitoring supports the 99.8% market-implied probability on no hurricane formation by May 31. As of late May, official tropical weather outlooks show no active disturbances or organized systems in the Atlantic basin, where the season officially begins June 1. A developing El Niño pattern is enhancing upper-level wind shear that disrupts early cyclogenesis, while sea surface temperatures and steering patterns remain unfavorable for intensification ahead of the climatological start date. In the eastern Pacific, where the season began May 15, the first disturbance formed only recently and has not reached hurricane strength. Traders recognize these verified conditions leave virtually no realistic pathway for a hurricane to develop and be classified before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volumen
$54,941Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Strong scientific consensus from National Hurricane Center monitoring supports the 99.8% market-implied probability on no hurricane formation by May 31. As of late May, official tropical weather outlooks show no active disturbances or organized systems in the Atlantic basin, where the season officially begins June 1. A developing El Niño pattern is enhancing upper-level wind shear that disrupts early cyclogenesis, while sea surface temperatures and steering patterns remain unfavorable for intensification ahead of the climatological start date. In the eastern Pacific, where the season began May 15, the first disturbance formed only recently and has not reached hurricane strength. Traders recognize these verified conditions leave virtually no realistic pathway for a hurricane to develop and be classified before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volumen
$54,941Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong scientific consensus from National Hurricane Center monitoring supports the 99.8% market-implied probability on no hurricane formation by May 31. As of late May, official tropical weather outlooks show no active disturbances or organized systems in the Atlantic basin, where the season officially begins June 1. A developing El Niño pattern is enhancing upper-level wind shear that disrupts early cyclogenesis, while sea surface temperatures and steering patterns remain unfavorable for intensification ahead of the climatological start date. In the eastern Pacific, where the season began May 15, the first disturbance formed only recently and has not reached hurricane strength. Traders recognize these verified conditions leave virtually no realistic pathway for a hurricane to develop and be classified before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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