Name: Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
Start: 2024-11-18T22:13:23.860792Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the likelihood of confirmation for various nominees picked by Trump.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pam Bondi is confirmed as Attorney General by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Bondi's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Pam Bondi

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Collins is confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Collins's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Doug Collins

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth is confirmed as Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Hegseth’s nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects his nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Pete Hegseth

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elise Stefanik is confirmed as United Nations ambassador by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Stefanik's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Elise Stefanik

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sean Duffy is confirmed as Secretary of Transportation by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Duffy's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Sean Duffy

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel is confirmed as Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Patel's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects his nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Kash Patel

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chris Wright is confirmed as Secretary of Energy by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Wright's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Chris Wright

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Burgum is confirmed as Secretary of Interior by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Burgum's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Doug Burgum

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brooke Rollins is confirmed as Agriculture Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Rollins's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Brooke Rollins

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem is confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Noem’s nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Kristi Noem

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Zeldin is confirmed as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Zeldin's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects his nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Lee Zeldin

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If RFK's nomination is formally withdrawn or if the Senate rejects his nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must to confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

RFK Jr.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mike Huckabee is confirmed as the U.S. ambassador to Israel by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Huckabee's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects his nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Mike Huckabee

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russell Vought is confirmed as director of the Office of Management and Budget by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Vought's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects their nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Russell Vought

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe is confirmed as director of the CIA by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Ratcliffe's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects his nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

John Ratcliffe

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio is confirmed as Secretary of State by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Rubio's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects their nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Marco Rubio

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Matt Gaetz is confirmed as Attorney General by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Gaetz's nomination is formally withdrawn or if the Senate rejects his nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Matt Gaetz 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tulsi Gabbard is confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Gabbard's nomination is formally withdrawn or if the Senate rejects his nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must to confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tulsi Gabbard

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Scott Bessent is confirmed as Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Bessent's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Scott Bessent

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Scott Turner is confirmed as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Turner's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects their nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Scott Turner

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mehmet Oz is confirmed as Administrator of Medicare and Medicaid by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Oz's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects their nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Mehmet Oz

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lori Chavez-DeRemer is confirmed as Labor Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Chavez-DeRemer's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.

If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Votarán 57 senadores “sí” al nominado de Trump para presidente de la Reserva Federal?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

¿Anunciará Donald Trump un nuevo candidato para Presidente de la Reserva Federal antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) on which the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve.

An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. 

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made on a listed date, will also resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

If no qualifying announcement is made by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by Jan 31”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

¿Donald Trump no anunciará un nuevo candidato para Presidente de la Reserva Federal antes de febrero de 2026?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

¿Trump respaldará a Steve Hilton en CA-Gov para el 2 de noviembre de 2026, hora del Este?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Nominará Trump a Kevin Warsh como el próximo presidente de la Fed?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Será Marco Rubio el primero en dejar el gabinete de Trump antes de 2027?

This Market will resolve to “US Strikes Iran” if the US strikes Iran before Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Trump Announce Fed” if Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee before the US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The US will be considered to strike Iran if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this would qualify). 

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source for the US striking Iran will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Donald Trump will be considered to announce a new Fed Chair nominee if Donald Trump or the Trump administration make an announcement stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve will qualify. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for Donald Trump announcing a new Fed Chair nominee will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

If the US does not strike Iran and Donald Trump does not announce a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

¿EE. UU. ataca a Irán o Trump anuncia al nominado para la Fed primero?

This market will resolve according to the number of Supreme Court Justices who voted in favor of the petitioner (Donald J. Trump) in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc., by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A justice will be considered to have voted in favor of the petitioner if, according to the official Supreme Court ruling, that justice concurred in a judgment that grants some or all relief requested by the petitioner or dissented from a judgment that grants none of the relief requested against the petitioner. Further details are provided below:

A justice must participate in the case and support a position aligned with granting relief to the petitioner to qualify.

If the Supreme Court's final judgment grants some or all relief requested by the petitioner, all justices who joined the majority opinion, wrote or joined concurring opinions, or concurred in the judgment alone will count. A justice who concurred in part and dissented in part will count only if their concurrence includes a vote to grant the petitioner some relief.

If the petitioner loses in the Supreme Court’s final judgment, all justices who dissented from the judgment and whose dissent, if adopted, would have granted some or all of the relief the petitioner sought, will count.

If the Supreme Court affirms the previous ruling in part and reverses the previous ruling in part, any justice whose vote, opinion, or dissent supports any portion of the judgment that grants relief to the petitioner will count.

If no majority opinion exists but a judgment is issued, all justices who concurred in the judgment in favor of the petitioner, regardless of whether they joined the plurality, will count. Justices who concurred in the judgment against the petitioner will not count.

Unless otherwise noted in official information from the Supreme Court, unsigned per curiam opinions will represent all participating justices. If any justices issue a dissent or note non-participation, they will not count.

If an emergency order in favor of the petitioner is the final disposition of the case, all participating justices will be counted excluding dissents and noted non-participation. If an emergency order against the petitioner is the final disposition of the case, all dissenters who would have granted relief to the petitioner will count.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without decision, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest option, regardless of whether any justices issue separate opinions outside of a final judgment which express support for the petitioner.

Justices who are recused or who do not participate will not count. 

Only the final votes recorded in the Supreme Court’s official slip opinion, summary disposition, or order will count. Leaked drafts, opinions, or other information will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Fallarán 3 jueces a favor de los aranceles de Trump?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

¿Respaldará Trump a algún candidato presidencial antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court issues an official ruling in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official ruling on the case is defined as any decision on the merits of the case issued by the Supreme Court, including but not limited to a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without a decision on the merits, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Decidirá la Corte Suprema sobre los aranceles de Trump antes del 20 de febrero?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

¿Trump será sometido a un juicio político para finales de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

¿Respaldará Trump a JD Vance para presidente antes de 2027?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.

This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.

Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.

¿Será Kevin Warsh confirmado como presidente de la Fed y se mantendrán las tasas por encima del 2,5% en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will.

If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s August 29, 2025 decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, in which the Federal Circuit held that the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders 14193, 14194, 14195, 14257, and 14266 exceeded the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." 

If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No." 

For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


¿La Corte Suprema falla a favor de los aranceles de Trump?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Indultará Trump a Stefan Brodie antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any naturalized US citizen is denaturalized by the United States government by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Denaturalization refers to the legal process through which a naturalized citizen’s US citizenship is revoked by the federal government.

An announcement from relevant federal government sources, including but not limited to US Attorney’s Offices, relevant US district courts, the Department of Justice, or the Department of Homeland Security, within this market’s timeframe that any naturalized citizen has been or definitively will be denaturalized will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the denaturalization goes into effect or any legal challenges the denaturalization may face after announcement. Initiation of denaturalization proceedings, allegations, recommendations, or statements otherwise supporting denaturalization without announcing the denaturalization of a specific person or persons will not alone count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government and federal legal structures; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump denaturalize any citizen by June 30?

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.

For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.

If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Obligará el tribunal a Trump a devolver los aranceles?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any release will qualify, including re-releases, partial releases, unsubstantive materials, or documents whose contents were already known from prior reporting.

Qualifying releases must be made by the Executive Branch itself, such as through an official government website, press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions solely to courts, Congress, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

The following will not qualify:
-Announcements of releases that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by courts, Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Liberará la administración Trump más archivos relacionados con Epstein antes del 28 de febrero?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Trump suspende la entrada a EE. UU. para más países hasta el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

¿Ganará J.D. Vance la nominación presidencial republicana de 2028?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


¿Intentará Trump despedir a Powell antes del 31 de enero?

Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.

If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Trump abandona la investigación de Powell antes del 28 de febrero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

¿Vacante en la Corte Suprema en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

¿Respaldará Trump a María Corina Machado para presidenta de Venezuela en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

¿Ganará Gavin Newsom la nominación presidencial demócrata de 2028?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Renunciará Trump antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NewsNation interview?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

¿Respaldará Bernie a Dan Osborn para NE-Sen antes del 2 de noviembre de 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Miembro del gabinete de Trump fuera antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Jerome Powell by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Se reunirá Trump con Jerome Powell antes del 31 de enero de 2026?

An interview of Donald Trump by Joe Kernen is scheduled to air on January 21, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/CNBC/status/2012167755407999076

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or CNBC, or otherwise is not released by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Pete Hegseth
$3,251,258 Vol.
Yes

Tulsi Gabbard
$5,257,374 Vol.
Yes

RFK Jr.
$3,605,358 Vol.
Yes

Mehmet Oz
$237,197 Vol.
Yes

Kash Patel
$2,746,033 Vol.
Yes

Matt Gaetz
$3,227,787 Vol.
No

Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$1,203,871 Vol.
Yes

Brooke Rollins
$125,910 Vol.
Yes

John Ratcliffe
$78,381 Vol.
Yes

Mike Huckabee
$763,816 Vol.
Yes

Elise Stefanik
$1,207,022 Vol.
No

Lee Zeldin
$65,914 Vol.
Yes

Kristi Noem
$131,062 Vol.
Yes

Doug Collins
$57,185 Vol.
Yes

Sean Duffy
$84,260 Vol.
Yes

Chris Wright
$306,304 Vol.
Yes

Pam Bondi
$161,796 Vol.
Yes

Scott Bessent
$148,611 Vol.
Yes

Doug Burgum
$189,044 Vol.
Yes

Russell Vought
$91,686 Vol.
Yes

Marco Rubio
$46,383 Vol.
Yes

Scott Turner
$56,284 Vol.
Yes

Contexto del Mercado

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Reglas

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Contexto del Mercado

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Acerca de

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Pete Hegseth$3,251,258 Vol.Yes

Tulsi Gabbard$5,257,374 Vol.Yes

RFK Jr.$3,605,358 Vol.Yes

Mehmet Oz$237,197 Vol.Yes

Kash Patel$2,746,033 Vol.Yes

Matt Gaetz $3,227,787 Vol.No

Lori Chavez-DeRemer$1,203,871 Vol.Yes

Brooke Rollins$125,910 Vol.Yes

John Ratcliffe$78,381 Vol.Yes

Mike Huckabee$763,816 Vol.Yes

Elise Stefanik$1,207,022 Vol.No

Lee Zeldin$65,914 Vol.Yes

Kristi Noem$131,062 Vol.Yes

Doug Collins$57,185 Vol.Yes

Sean Duffy$84,260 Vol.Yes

Chris Wright$306,304 Vol.Yes

Pam Bondi$161,796 Vol.Yes

Scott Bessent$148,611 Vol.Yes

Doug Burgum$189,044 Vol.Yes

Russell Vought$91,686 Vol.Yes

Marco Rubio$46,383 Vol.Yes

Scott Turner$56,284 Vol.Yes

Contexto del Mercado

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Reglas

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Contexto del Mercado

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Acerca de

Pete Hegseth
$3,251,258 Vol.
Yes

Tulsi Gabbard
$5,257,374 Vol.
Yes

RFK Jr.
$3,605,358 Vol.
Yes

Mehmet Oz
$237,197 Vol.
Yes

Kash Patel
$2,746,033 Vol.
Yes

Matt Gaetz
$3,227,787 Vol.
No

Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$1,203,871 Vol.
Yes

Brooke Rollins
$125,910 Vol.
Yes

John Ratcliffe
$78,381 Vol.
Yes

Mike Huckabee
$763,816 Vol.
Yes

Elise Stefanik
$1,207,022 Vol.
No

Lee Zeldin
$65,914 Vol.
Yes

Kristi Noem
$131,062 Vol.
Yes

Doug Collins
$57,185 Vol.
Yes

Sean Duffy
$84,260 Vol.
Yes

Chris Wright
$306,304 Vol.
Yes

Pam Bondi
$161,796 Vol.
Yes

Scott Bessent
$148,611 Vol.
Yes

Doug Burgum
$189,044 Vol.
Yes

Russell Vought
$91,686 Vol.
Yes

Marco Rubio
$46,383 Vol.
Yes

Scott Turner
$56,284 Vol.
Yes