Name: What will Biden say during State of the Union?
Start: 2024-03-06T19:21:04.447Z
End: 2024-03-07T00:00:00Z

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Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Trump" or "trump" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. E.g. if Biden says "I have a trump card up my sleeve" this market will resolve to "Yes."

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Trump

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "border" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Border 3 or more times

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed words, regardless of the context of their usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

AI/Artificial Intelligence

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "fentanyl" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Fentanyl

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Ukraine" or "Ukranian" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Ukraine/Ukranian 3 or more times

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Navalny" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market.

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Navalny

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Putin" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If Biden just says "Vladimir" it will not count for this market.

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Putin

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "China" or "Chinese" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

 China/Chinese 3 or more times

Update: Hyphenated compound words will count - non-hyphenated compound words will not count. For example, “Chinese-made” will count as saying “Chinese”, but “moonshot” will not count as saying “moon”. If it is unclear whether Biden said a compound/hyphenated word, the transcript will be used.

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Moon" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Moon

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Hunter" or "hunter" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Hunter

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Bitcoin" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Bitcoin

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "folks" four or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. In case of ambiguity, the official transcript and other credible sources may also be considered.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Folks 4 or more times

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Ceasefire" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. In case of ambiguity, the official transcript and other credible sources may also be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Ceasefire

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address?

Will Trump say "Greenland" during the State of the Union address?

Donald Trump is set to deliver remarks in Iowa on on January 27, 2026 (see: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the event on January 27, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

This market is explicitly about the speech in Iowa (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech?

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by January 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NewsNation interview?

An interview of Donald Trump by Joe Kernen is scheduled to air on January 21, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/CNBC/status/2012167755407999076

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or CNBC, or otherwise is not released by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Liberation Day" this week? (January 25)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Banana Republic" in January?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Donald Trump visitará Iowa en 2026?

J.D. Vance is set to deliver remarks in Washington on on January 23, 2026 (see: https://www.dioceseofscranton.org/vance-to-address-march-for-life-rally-in-person-trump-to-speak-via-video/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vance says the listed term during the event on January 23, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

This market is explicitly about the remarks for March for Life (https://www.dioceseofscranton.org/vance-to-address-march-for-life-rally-in-person-trump-to-speak-via-video/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will J.D. Vance say "Trump" during the March for Life?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from November 14, 2025 through March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Seguirá Schumer siendo el líder de la minoría hasta el 31 de marzo?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Trump visitará China antes del 30 de abril?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Coinbase currently projected to take place on February 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Coinbase say "Subscription" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of EA currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Renunciará Trump antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Tesla currently scheduled to take place on January 28, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Tesla say "Robotaxi" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Netflix currently scheduled to take place on January 20, 2026 at 4:45 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Nebius currently forecasted to take place on February 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Nebius say "Nvidia" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Google currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Google say "Gemini 3" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

¿Mike Johnson dejará de ser presidente de la Cámara antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of PayPal currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will PayPal say "Bank" during earnings call?

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) on which the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve.

An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. 

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made on a listed date, will also resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

If no qualifying announcement is made by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by Jan 31”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

¿Donald Trump no anunciará un nuevo candidato para Presidente de la Reserva Federal antes de febrero de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

¿Anunciará Donald Trump un nuevo candidato para Presidente de la Reserva Federal antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

¿Trump enviará Tomahawk a Ucrania para el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

¿Renunciará Mitch McConnell al Senado antes de que termine su mandato?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that a man-made device or weapon exists that is responsible for, or capable of causing, Havana Syndrome or Havana Syndrome-like symptoms by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Confirma EE. UU. el dispositivo que causa el síndrome de La Habana para el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿EE.UU. reconoce a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de enero?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Nominará Trump a Kevin Warsh como el próximo presidente de la Fed?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

¿Respaldará Bernie a James Talarico para el Senado de Texas antes del 2 de noviembre de 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


¿Intentará Trump despedir a Powell antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

¿Trump será sometido a un juicio político para finales de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

¿Recesión en EE. UU. para finales de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


¿Se reunirá Trump con Delcy Rodríguez antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Bill or Hillary Clinton, or both, provide live or recorded testimony before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Trump
$10,502 Vol.
No

Folks 4 or more times
$22,245 Vol.
Yes

China/Chinese 3 or more times
$2,401 Vol.
Yes

Border 3 or more times
$4,427 Vol.
Yes

Ukraine/Ukranian 3 or more times
$3,898 Vol.
Yes

Bitcoin
$6,290 Vol.
No

Ceasefire
$2,833 Vol.
Yes

AI/Artificial Intelligence
$8,040 Vol.
Yes

Fentanyl
$2,217 Vol.
Yes

Navalny
$3,754 Vol.
No

Putin
$1,560 Vol.
Yes

Hunter
$4,366 Vol.
No

Moon
$3,986 Vol.
No

Contexto del Mercado

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Reglas

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Contexto del Mercado

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Acerca de

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Trump$10,502 Vol.No

Folks 4 or more times$22,245 Vol.Yes

China/Chinese 3 or more times$2,401 Vol.Yes

Border 3 or more times$4,427 Vol.Yes

Ukraine/Ukranian 3 or more times$3,898 Vol.Yes

Bitcoin$6,290 Vol.No

Ceasefire$2,833 Vol.Yes

AI/Artificial Intelligence$8,040 Vol.Yes

Fentanyl$2,217 Vol.Yes

Navalny$3,754 Vol.No

Putin$1,560 Vol.Yes

Hunter$4,366 Vol.No

Moon$3,986 Vol.No

Contexto del Mercado

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Reglas

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Contexto del Mercado

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Acerca de

Trump
$10,502 Vol.
No

Folks 4 or more times
$22,245 Vol.
Yes

China/Chinese 3 or more times
$2,401 Vol.
Yes

Border 3 or more times
$4,427 Vol.
Yes

Ukraine/Ukranian 3 or more times
$3,898 Vol.
Yes

Bitcoin
$6,290 Vol.
No

Ceasefire
$2,833 Vol.
Yes

AI/Artificial Intelligence
$8,040 Vol.
Yes

Fentanyl
$2,217 Vol.
Yes

Navalny
$3,754 Vol.
No

Putin
$1,560 Vol.
Yes

Hunter
$4,366 Vol.
No

Moon
$3,986 Vol.
No