No recent military or diplomatic developments indicate an imminent U.S. strike on Nigeria, with bilateral relations focused on cooperative counterterrorism efforts against Boko Haram and ISWAP through AFRICOM advisory support rather than direct action. The U.S. provides intelligence sharing, training, and equipment to Nigerian forces under frameworks like the Major Non-NATO Ally status, avoiding kinetic strikes on sovereign territory absent extraordinary threats. Trader consensus reflects this stability, as no escalatory incidents—such as cross-border attacks, hostage crises, or policy shifts—have emerged in the past 30 days. Upcoming U.S.-Nigeria security talks and potential executive actions on Africa policy could influence sentiment, but structural barriers like international law and alliance commitments keep probabilities low.