US-Iran tensions center on compliance with the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that paused direct hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and set a 60-day window for broader talks on sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear program. As of early October 2026, trader assessments reflect renewed pressure from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Iran's reported closure of the Strait in response, and U.S. demands for immediate reopening alongside sustained military deployments. President Trump has stated that American forces will remain positioned until full Iranian adherence, while indirect diplomacy continues through mediators. These developments, coupled with spillover risks from Lebanon and enforcement questions around the original deal's terms, shape probabilities around whether qualifying U.S. military action occurs before specific near-term deadlines. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups and any further Hormuz-related incidents remain key near-term catalysts.