Henry Cuellar holds a commanding position in the TX-28 race as the longtime Democratic incumbent seeking reelection on November 3, 2026, in a South Texas border district redrawn during mid-decade redistricting. Traders price his 87.5% implied probability based on consistent polling leads, including a 45-34 percent advantage in the most recent available survey, strong fundraising totals exceeding $2.2 million, and established voter support in key counties. Tano Tijerina, the Republican challenger and Webb County judge, benefits from President Trump’s repeated endorsements and recent October 2026 criticism of Cuellar’s decision to remain a Democrat after a 2025 pardon, yet faces structural headwinds in a district rated Lean Democratic by multiple forecasters. Early voting begins later this month, leaving limited time for late shifts.